New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Brazil Retail Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/11/2013 -- The Brazilian Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Brazil's economic outlook of persistently high inflation.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Brazilian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis and declining Chinese import demand on the Brazilian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Brazilian retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Brazilian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 28% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 32%. Brazil comes first (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward ratings.
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Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase between 2013 and 2017, from US$37.79bn to US$57.62bn as an expanding economy lifts millions into a middle class for whom computers are no longer beyond reach.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in government moves to remove certain taxes for tablet computer manufacturers to bring production into the country, with interest being shown by the likes of Foxconn, Huawei and ZTE.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- With data indicating that Brazil's economic recovery is beginning to falter, we have revised down our 2013 and 2014 real GDP growth forecasts, as we believe that a number of headwinds will temper economic activity in the coming months. In particular, we believe that the aggressive sell-off in the exchange rate, combined with rising interest rates and elevated inflation will see private consumption growth underperform our previous expectations.
- With real private consumption growth expanding by just 2.1% y-o-y in Q113, and continued headwinds in the form of high inflation and interest rate hikes on the horizon, we believe that Brazil's consumer sector will grow more slowly this year than we previously expected. We are therefore revising down our forecast for real private consumption growth in 2013 to 1.8% y-o-y, from 2.2% y-o-y previously.
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