Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/26/2015 -- Brunei is a mature oil and gas producer, with limited domestic demand allowing the country to be one of the region's largest net exporters. However, faced with falling production, the government has unveiled an ambitious plan to expand both its upstream and downstream segments. While regional demand and an established industry will help support upstream investment, a small domestic market and fierce competition in the regional downstream space will weigh on its prospects in this segment.

A decrease in crude oil production in 2013 spurred Brunei to move aggressively to raise the country's longterm oil and gas industry outlook. In March 2014, it unveiled its first Energy White Paper, detailing the following targets for the industry's development to 2035.

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Timor-Leste is set to experience declining crude oil and natural gas production over the next decade as its two producing fields remain in decline. Additionally, the small domestic market size makes it uneconomical to build a refinery in the country, which will result in rising refined fuels imports over the coming years.

The main trends and developments we highlight in the Timor-Leste oil and gas sector are:
With crude oil production peaking in Kitan and Bayu-Undan fields, which are currently the country's only two producing fields, we forecast oil production to decline from 76,000 barrels per day (b/day) in 2014 to 56,040b/d by 2024.

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The moratorium on upstream gas projects will limit the overall level of activity in the coming quarters, while work on a small number of enhanced oil recovery and redevelopment projects continues. Qatar's dominance of the liquefied natural gas export market will increasingly be challenged by other producers, but efforts to diversify the economy away from oil and gas will soften the impact.

We highlight the following trends and developments in Qatar's oil and gas sector:
The collapse of an oil rig housing workers at al-Shaheen in July 2014 led to 30,000b/d fall in output from the field, though no permanent damage to production or facilities was reported. The duration of the shutin of production at al-Shaheen was unclear, but we note some slight downside risk to our forecast for 2015. Qatar announced in 2015 that it would invite new bids for al-Shaheen when the current contract expires in mid-2017. In line with an effort to increase state control in the upstream sector will see Qatar seek new international oil companies (IOCs) for a 25-year exploration and production agreement. Though Maersk will be among the firms able to bid, uncertainty over long-term ownership of the field could slow investment in the near-term.

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Tunisia's investor-friendly government and stable business environment bodes well for foreign investors. However, the country's oil reserves are depleting and recent exploration efforts have only resulted in relatively small discoveries. We believe that a lack of new significant discoveries will continue pushing Tunisia's oil production volumes lower across our forecast period to 2024.

Latest trends and developments:
In August 2015, AIM-listed Independent Resources (IRG) completed the Scotforth Limited remote sensing hydrocarbon survey (RSDD-H) of the Ksar Hadada permit in Tunisia. The survey has identified the presence of material hydrocarbon prospects within the permit area. Some of the prospects had not previously been identified by other technologies. The results have reinforced the company's belief that there are multiple drillable low risk prospects within the permit.

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