Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Business Forecast Report Q2 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/12/2013 -- Core Views
We continue to expect Bulgaria to enjoy a moderate recovery in 2013, forecasting real GDP growth of 1.5%, as the eurozone crisis stabilises and the government eases fiscal policy ahead of parliamentary elections in mid-2013. We have revised our forecast for economic growth in 2012 up from 0.1% to 0.4% on the back of stronger than anticipated data in Q312.
We view the ruling Citizens for Bulgaria's European Development (GERB) as the most likely winner at the parliamentary elections in mid-2013. Although support for the party has been flagging, GERB still leads in the polls and is likely to benefit from increased government spending coupled with a pick up in the economy ahead of the elections.
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Major Forecast Changes
We forecast a fiscal deficit of 1.4% of GDP in 2013 and expect the national debt to continue falling from the current level of 17.8% of GDP to 12.6% by 2020. The need to maintain Bulgaria's currency board arrangement will also prevent significant fiscal slippage.
We forecast Bulgaria to run a current account deficit of 1.6% of GDP in both 2012 and 2013 and 1.1% in 2014 as Bulgaria continues its gradual rebalancing following large external deficits in the run-up to the global financial crisis. Indeed, the economy has made impressive strides in strengthening its external position in the last few years.
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