Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Bulgaria Infrastructure Report Q3 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/27/2013 -- Following a contraction of -3.5% in the construction industry in 2012, we have downgraded our forecast for 2013 to -2.7%. After a major contraction of -17.9% in 2010, the rate of decline in the sector is slowly easing; however, the industry remains in recession, with negative growth recorded in Q1 2013, suggesting a negative outcome for the industry again this year. However, we believe that the worst could now be over. Signs of growth are expected in the transport sector from 2014, when we forecast positive growth of 1.6%, mostly driven by roads projects. This leads us to forecast a return to growth in the overall construction sector from 2014.
Key developments in Bulgaria's infrastructure sector:
- Infrastructure projects face strong headwinds in Bulgaria as lack of investor confidence and corruption continue to impede growth. However, we forecast positive growth to return to the construction industry in 2014 with 1.23% real growth, maintaining an average of 2.2% year-on-year growth through to 2022.
- The Strouma motorway development project in the Yugozapaden region of Bulgaria has secured EUR274mn (US$359.48mn) in financial assistance from the European Commission. Work comprises the construction of a dual carriageway between Dolna Dikanya and Blagoevgrad, and from Sandanski to the border crossing with Greece at Kulata. The three sections - lots 1, 2 and 4 - cover 68.5km and are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2015. Work is also due to include preparation for the construction of the Blagoevgrad-Sandanski section (lot 3), entailing tunnels bypassing the Kresna gorge.
- Bulgaria's export-based economic recovery has ameliorated some of the country's structural imbalances but looking ahead, it will face greater competition in its external environment. In addition, weak final consumption expenditure growth coupled with domestic asset price deflation will hang over the country's economic outlook.
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