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Canada, Hong Kong, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates Autos Report Q4 2015 Market Report; Launched via

Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “Canada, Hong Kong, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates Autos Report Q4 2015” research report to their website


Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/17/2015 -- With growth of 7.5% y-o-y in 8M15, Canada's light truck segment is still the driving force of the overall market. This has negative connotations, however, when it also makes up the majority of sales in provinces hit by the drop in oil income. Alberta is the most obvious example, underperforming both the national market and other provinces in H115 (latest available sub-national data) with a total sales decline of 9.2% yo-y. In June alone, truck sales (including SUVs, minivans, trucks and buses), which account for around 77% of total sales due to their dual industrial and private use, fell 16.3% y-o-y.

Alberta has the third highest sales in the national market, and as such, disruptions on a provincial level will eventually filter through to the wider market. As such we have revised down our already conservative growth forecasts for 2016. We now expect a further decline of 2.0% in passenger car sales, which have been on a downtrend on the back of low fuel prices in favour of bigger vehicles. However, we have also slightly lowered our light truck forecast to growth of 2.0% compared with the previous 3.0% growth forecast, as the impact on the oil sector becomes more prominent. Overall, this results in growth of 0.5% for the total light vehicle market.

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According to the Hong Kong Department of Transport, domestic passenger car sales declined by 9.5% y-oy in April 2015 to 2,578 units, which is in line with our expectations of a more challenging market for the sector despite a strong start. This brings passenger car sales for the first four months of 2015 to 12,806 units, representing growth of 1.2% y-o-y. As we expect additional headwinds to weigh on passenger car sales in the latter half of the year, we now forecast passenger car sales to grow by 2.1% in 2015, down from 3.8% previously.

A key risk which we foresee over the coming quarters is a cooling property market will weigh on consumer sentiment. Our Country Risk team sees an increasing likelihood of a property price correction as demand from mainland Chinese investors, which have traditionally been an important source of demand for Hong Kong real estate, dries up due to the ongoing anti-corruption drive in China. A decline in property prices would hurt consumer sentiment and could easily have a negative spill over effect on passenger car demand.

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This quarter, Publisher is revising down its sales forecasts for the Kuwait new vehicle sales market, both for the near term and the medium term. We are now targeting just 2% growth over the current year, down from 5% growth previously. For the remainder of our forecast period to 2019, we are now targeting around 3.5% average annual growth in new vehicle sales, taking total new sales to around the 201,000 mark by 2019.

There are a number of reasons for our slightly more negative stance. Over the near term, Publisher's Country Risk team believes that Kuwait will record only modest economic growth over the coming quarters as political stalemate and low rates of capital expenditure execution weigh on growth. We maintain our forecast for real GDP growth of 2.6% in 2015 and 2.4% in 2016, up slightly from an estimated 2.7% in 2014. While lower gains in oil production and lower global oil prices will drag down headline GDP growth over the coming years, non-oil economic activity is likely to remain relatively robust.

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This quarter, Publisher maintains its sales forecast of 3% growth for the UAE new vehicle sales market in 2015. We continue to believe that the combination of a slowing economy in Abu Dhabi and the rising likelihood of an increase in local interest rates will weigh on the market's near-term prospects slightly. Certainly, we are not anticipating a repetition of last year's double-digit sales growth across the emirate.

Early sales indications would seem to back up our near-term caution, with Q115 sales across the emirate reportedly up by just 1% y-o-y, at 101,676 registrations. However, we expect this figure to improve as additional monthly data are released, especially as a significant proportion of UAE new vehicle sales take place during the month of Ramadan. This is also a time when many dealerships have special offers.

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