New Materials market report from Business Monitor International: "Canada Metals Report Q4 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/15/2013 -- We forecast low, though positive, production and consumption growth across the Canadian metals complex over our forecast period. We believe that a weaker Canadian dollar against the US dollar will encourage refined metal exports, increasing Canada's export profile. On the domestic side, we believe solid growth prospects within the country's infrastructure and construction industries will support demand among domestic end users of metal.
A weaker Canadian dollar (CAD) and solid prospects for North American economic growth should lead to metals sector expansion. Canada is a significant exporter of aluminium, nickel, and steel to the US, and to a lesser extent Mexico. We forecast the CAD/US$ exchange rate to average 1.04 through the end of 2013, weakening to yearly averages of 1.05 in 2014 and 1.17 in 2015. A weakening of the exchange rate will help Canadian exporters and should allow the country to capture more market share. Furthermore, we forecast modest economic growth in the US, leading to increased US demand for Canadian metals over the forecast period. Though we recently downgraded our 2014 Mexican growth forecast to 3.5%, we forecast growth will average 3.7% through 2017 and that the country will be a regional outperformer.
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On the domestic side, we see positive prospects for the construction and infrastructure sectors, boding well for steel and aluminium, in particular - the two largest components of Canada's metals sector. We forecast Canada's construction industry to see average growth of 3.3% per annum from 2014 through 2017, with the country's infrastructure industry growing 4.1% on average per annum over the same time period.
Additionally, we forecast growth of 5.0% on average per annum for the country's oil and gas pipeline infrastructure, a major end user of refined metals. While not immune to external economic pressures, Canada should see solid economic growth of compared to other developed markets. We forecast the Canadian economy to see average real growth of 2.4% a year through 2017, compared with 2.6% in the US. Its exposure to and trade relationships with the US should also maintain demand for Canadian metals.
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