Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 06/02/2012 -- BMI View: Oil sands-based liquids supply and shale gas production form the foundation of Canada's energy supply outlook. Conventional sources of crude oil and natural gas output are in decline, with little immediate prospect of a reversal in this trend. The overall picture is therefore complex but encouraging, as long-term volumes of oil and gas protect Canada's position as a key supplier to the US.
The main trends and developments we highlight for Canada's Oil and Gas sector are:
- There is likely to be a threefold increase in gas power generation over the next decade, according to the Canadian Energy Research Institute. Much of the gas used in power applications is the result of rising energy use at the oil sands facilities. The growing use of gas in power generation projects also points to Canada's consumption rising from an estimated 86.40bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 96.96bcm by 2016.
- Canadian gas production is expected to decline over the next two or three years, before unconventional supplies reverse this trend and lead to the stabilisation of supply. BMI is assuming that estimated Canadian gas production, estimated at 155.05bcm in 2012, will drop to 152.27bcm by 2014, before recovering to 155.32bcm by 2016 and 164.08bcm by 2021.
- Industry body the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) continues to forecast significant growth in Canadian crude oil production, driven largely by oil sands. Released in June 2011, its forecasts reaffirm a trend for continued long-term output growth. Total Canadian production (including oil sands but excluding NGLs) is predicted to rise from 2.8mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010 to 3.5mn b/d by 2015, and further to 4.2mn b/d by 2020.
- BMI estimates Canadian oil supply (crude oil, condensate, NGLs and other liquids) will hit 3.63mn b/d in 2012. We expect production growth of approximately 200,000b/d in 2012-2013, with total volumes set to hit 4.32mn b/d by 2016. We are assuming that oil demand will reach 2.33mn b/d by 2016, resulting in net exports of 2.13mn b/d.
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