Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Canada Power Report Q1 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 03/01/2013 -- BMI View: On the back of a revision to our historical data set, and accounting for the fact that external headwinds and a slowdown in domestic consumption continue to weight on Canada's economic performance, we have slightly downgraded our 2012 consumption growth estimate for the Canadian power market, from 0.91% to 0.82%. Owing to a combination of economic, demographic and industry-specific dynamic, we also anticipate that the country's mature electricity market will see a positive but moderate rise in generation and consumption in the medium to long term. The replacement of old and polluting capacity will be amongst the key drivers of this growth
Canada enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix, thanks to its abundant indigenous resources. Yet, and despite Canada's decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, environmental concerns are likely to weigh heavily upon the country's energy agenda. Hence, in a picture similar to the one of its Southern neighbour, we anticipate that planned shifts in the share of various fuels will be among the key drivers of new investment in the power sector:
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- We have long held the view that, although Canada's heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation and its recent withdrawal from of the Kyoto agreement would imply the expansion of greener technologies is not at the forefront of government policy, stringent government carbon emission regulations suggest that electricity generation from coal will decrease over our 10-year forecast period, especially after the abandonment of a flagship Carbon Capture and Storage (CSS) project at a coal-fired plant near Edmonton, Alberta, in April 2012.
- News that Canada introduced new tough regulations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the coal-fired electricity sector in September 2012 are testament to this view. As a result of these regulations, Canada became indeed the first country in the world to ban new coal plants that use traditional technology. In addition, data from the Energy Information Administration highlights that Canada is a declining market for US coal exports.
- As a result, the country is likely that investment in low-carbon emission capacity, primarily gas and hydro and non-hydro renewable technologies. That said, the absence of national targets for renewable energy and a very diverse energy mix across provinces make it difficult to gauge Canada's green energy agenda.
- The country had expressed a desire to strengthen its nuclear capacity. However, despite developments within Canada's nuclear industry, we anticipate a decrease in both nuclear generation and capacity as the industry in hindered by delays and decommissioning schedules.
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