Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/13/2013 -- Canada's mobile market continues to show slow but steady growth. With penetration as low as 77%, consumers preferring postpaid plans and operators committing to selected deployments of LTE technology, this trend is likely to continue. Although mobile ARPU growth was recorded for much of 2012, a downturn was seen in Q113. It is far from clear whether this is a result of increased pricing competition or an uptick in customer migration to the smaller new players (which do not report operating data). However, with the major new entrants all putting themselves up for sale in Q113, it seems likely that they are close to exhausting their financial reserves and that their strategy of targeting the low-cost prepaid market has not paid off. This does not bode well for private investors and the news could dissuade investors in ancillary industries - such as mobile content and mobile financial services - from developing muchneeded new products and services. 2013 will, therefore, represent an important step-change in the development of Canada's telecoms sector.

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Key Data

- Bell Wireless, Rogers Wireless and MTS Mobility all reported net mobile subscriber losses in Q113, while growth at Telus and Wind Mobile was hard-won. Although the smaller new entrants are likely to have added customers in Q113, their decisions to sell up or abort their mobile strategies suggest growth was not significant. BMI has therefore scaled down mobile sector growth forecasts for the 2013-2017 period.
- The principal operators - including regional players MTS and SaskTel - continue to roll out 4G services based on LTE technology. Although they remain reluctant to disclose adoption rates, continued growth in the number of smartphone and tablet users suggests they would be unwise to curtail 3G/4G investment any time soon.
- There are no new data available regarding the development of the fixed-line, broadband and pay-TV markets, other than FY12 and Q113 data from selected operators. Therefore, we have made no changes to our forecasts in these sectors.

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