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"Chile Freight Transport Report Q4 2013" Is Now Available at Fast Market Research

New Transportation market report from Business Monitor International: "Chile Freight Transport Report Q4 2013"


Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/07/2013 -- BMI maintains a cautious outlook on Chile's freight transport sector. We continue to expect that 2013 will see a shift in the Chilean economy, and we forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3% this year and average 4.2% from 2014-2017, below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth is attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result in weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector, which have the effect of depressing road, rail and maritime dry bulk freight volumes.

Much of Chile's pre-crisis economic boom was due to its ability to take full advantage of a highly favourable external environment. While world trade flows and copper prices have picked up dramatically since their lows in 2009, we forecast that commodity prices, specifically copper, will fall from recent highs over the medium-to-long term. Lower copper prices will place renewed importance on shifting away from export- and investment-led growth to a more diversified economic growth trajectory, one that is more reliant on private consumption. If private consumption takes an increased share of Chile's economy, we may see increased growth in air freight, as well as in maritime container volumes, as both freight modes are used to carry consumer goods. Rail freight, however, will be hit hard by a move away from mining.

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Headline Industry Data

- Air freight tonnage is forecast to rise by 5.05% in 2013 to reach 336mn tonnes.
- Total tonnes at the port of Valparaiso forecast to rise 11.2%, to 11.53mn tonnes in 2013, with average growth of 7.5% over the next five years.
- Rail freight tonnage is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2013, reaching 26.01mn tonnes, with average growth of 0.03% over the next five years.

Key Industry Trends

BMI Bearish On Chilean Rail Freight

BMI is relatively bearish with regards to the Chilean rail freight sector's growth prospects in the coming years. The sector is highly exposed to the Latin American country's exports of raw materials, in particular copper to China. As growth in China slows, with the threat of an economic hard landing still a very real threat as the Asian dragon will at some point have to undergo a costly rebalancing of its economy, so will its demand for copper imports from Chile.

LAN Restarts Flights Following Agreement With Intercargo

LAN Airlines announced on May 18 that is was gradually resuming domestic and international flights in Argentina. LAN had suspended all flights to and from Argentina on May 17 owing to a dispute with Argentina's Intercargo.

Valparaiso Port to Double In Size

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