Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/25/2012 -- The Chile Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Chile's economic outlook of sluggish industrial production, which increased by a meagre 0.5% year-on-year in December 2011.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chilean retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of slowing exports to China and the eurozone on the Chilean consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Chilean retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
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Chilean per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by an impressive 52% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of 19%. The country comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk.
Among all retail categories, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$0.57bn in 2012 to US$0.88bn by the end of the forecast period, up nearly 54% as the ageing population and growing disease burden drive pharmaceutical market growth.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the improving regulatory and intellectual property environment, which should lead to Chile's pharmaceutical market becoming an increasingly attractive proposition for multinational companies.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI remains above consensus on growth in 2012 at 4.8%, forecasting that the Chilean economy will remain resilient to global headwinds. While slowing exports to China and the eurozone will continue to weigh on the country's external sector, we believe a resilient private consumption story combined with a strong outlook for fixed investment will support Chile's economic growth in the coming quarters.
- BMI believes that private consumption will remain a key driver of the Chilean economy in 2012, although we expect it to moderate to 4.5% in real terms, compared with the 6.5% recorded in 2011. A tight labour market will remain particularly supportive of higher household spending.
- BMI's forecast for relatively strong private consumption has been reinforced by an upward retail sales trend. Latest data from the National Statistics Institute show that Chilean retail sales rose 9.2% in March 2012 from the previous year, while supermarket revenue climbed 10.3%.
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