New Retailing market report from Business Monitor International: "Chile Retail Report Q3 2013"
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/12/2013 -- The Chile Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Chile's economic outlook of high labour costs, a moderation in external demand and a fiscally conservative government.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Chilean retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of slowing Chinese growth and the prospect of a serious economic shock in the eurozone or slowdown in US economic activity on the Chilean consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Chilean retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Chilean per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 26% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 27%. Chile comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings.
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Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase from US$3.67bn in 2013 to US$4.84bn by 2017, up more than 31%. The Chilean market offers continued growth potential in key digital products groups such as computers (20% penetration rate), notebook computers and LCD TV sets.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Chile's free trade agreements, which have helped affordability of AV products such as digital TV sets (which are largely imported); the 2010 target for terrestrial digital TV launch was a further stimulus.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- We continue to expect that 2013 will see a pronounced shift in the Chilean economy, and we forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3% in 2013 and to average 4.2% from 2014-2017, below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth is attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result in weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector.
- After several years of strong growth in private consumption, we expect a slowdown over the next several years, forecasting average growth of 4.4% per annum over the next five years compared with 8.6% average growth from 2010-2012. We believe the 7.3% year-on-year real private consumption growth recorded in Q412 may represent the high-water mark over the medium term.
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