Fast Market Research recommends "Chile Shipping Report Q1 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/03/2013 -- Over the next five years, we expect the Chilean economy to struggle with rebalancing from robust growth driven by the global commodity boom of the past decade. We forecast real GDP to slow from 5.6% in 2011 to 4.8% in 2012 and 4.0% in 2013 - the result of a hard landing in China. The process of rebalancing away from rapid Chinese copper consumption will weigh on the Chilean economy for many years to come; we expect real GDP growth to average 3.8% from 2013-2017 - down from 4.4.% from 2002-2011.
We believe the impact of a Chinese hard landing will slow Chilean real GDP growth. The slowing has not affected all components of the Chilean economy as we expected, however, and we have altered our forecasts accordingly, revising upward our forecasts for private and government consumption, which has offset a steeper-than-expected drop in net exports. We expect the sharp drop in exports to continue into 2013 and be accompanied by a slowing in real gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth, but a sizeable increase in government spending will keep real GDP growth at our forecast of 4.0%. As such, dry bulk volumes at ports should be hit, while container volumes will maintain some momentum.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Valparaiso tonnage throughput forecast to grow 8.9%, with average annual growth of 9% the next five years.
- 2013 Port of San Antonio tonnage throughput forecast to grow 3.2% with average annual growth of 5.9% the next five years.
- 2013 Port of Valparaiso twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput forecast to grow 8.2%, with average annual growth of 10% the next five years.
- 2013 Port of San Antonio TEU throughput forecast to grow 5.3%, with average annual growth of 7% the next five years.
Key Industry Trends
Chilean Ports Affected By Strikes
Strike action across a number of Chile's ports ended in October 2012 after the government agreed on a new settlement. The port workers, represented by several unions, went on strike for 12 days in the port of San Antonio and in areas such as Conception (Lirquen, San Vicente and Talcahuano ports) as well in Chanaral and Huasco. The action was in support of a wage and benefits claim.
CSAV Deal To Support Virginia Volumes
BMI believes that a recent five-year contract extension signed by the US Virginia Port Authority (VPA) and the Chilean container shipping company Compania Sud Americana de Vapores (CSAV) will help support volumes through the port in the years to come. However, we note that the tie-up between the port and the company might have been of more value to the port just a few years previously when CSAV was among the largest container-shipping companies in the world.
Zim Joins Service Operated By MSC, CSAV
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