Fast Market Research recommends "Chile Shipping Report Q3 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/25/2013 -- We continue to expect that 2013 will see a pronounced shift in the Chilean economy, and we forecast real GDP growth to fall from 5.6% in 2012 to just 4.3% this year and average 4.2% from 2014-2017 - below consensus estimates. This slowdown in growth is attributable to decelerating economic activity in China, which over the next several years will result in weakening real demand for Chilean copper exports and reduced investment into the country's mining sector. This should have a negative knock-on effect on volumes at the country's ports. Further downside risk is presented a series of strikes that took place in the Chilean ports sector in 2012 and in Q113. Further strike action could hit port throughput.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2013 Port of Valparaiso tonnage throughput forecast to grow 8.9%.
- 2013 Port of San Antonio tonnage throughput forecast to grow 1.8%.
- 2013 Port of Valparaiso twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput forecast to grow 8.2%.
- 2013 Port of San Antonio TEU throughput forecast to grow 4.2%.
Key Industry Trends
CSAV Looks To Reduce Reliance On Chartered-In Tonnage: Chilean container-shipping company Compania Sud American de Vapores (CSAV) is looking to bounce back with an expansion to its owned fleet following its dramatic fall from grace in recent years, when an overambitious growth plan left it financially exposed to significant losses and forced to drastically reduce its capacity. While BMI believes that the company would do well to reduce its reliance on chartered-in vessels, it must be careful to not repeat the mistakes of the past.
New Valparaiso Concessionaire Announced As Strikes Hit: BMI believes that the recent awarding of the concession to operate the second terminal at the Chilean port of Valparaiso could offer upside risk to our throughput forecasts for the port, especially once its new container-handling facility is operational. However, given the recent port strikes in Chile, by which Valparaiso was affected, we caution that the new operator will have to ensure good relations with its workers if it is to realise its potential.
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