Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Chile Shipping Report Q4 2012", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/15/2012 -- BMI maintains its broadly positive outlook on the Chilean shipping and port sector for Q412. We caution, however, that volume growth is expected to slow somewhat in line with our view that the Chilean economy's robust economic growth is likely to continue cooling in the coming quarters. We believe that declining exports, combined with a moderation of private consumption and gross fixed investment, will weigh on Chile's headline growth in 2012. Given the strength of the authorities' growthsupporting policy arsenal, however, we are happy to remain above consensus, forecasting real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2012.
Chile's external demand story is likely to weaken over the coming quarters, and we still believe that import growth will outpace that of exports, putting downside pressure on volumes going through dry bulk terminals. This could be exacerbated if our view for a slowdown in Chinese economic growth plays out. Given the significance of copper exports to Chile's economy, any significant drop in copper export demand - in particular from Asia, which comprises around 65% of demand - or a large correction in copper prices, could push net exports further into negative territory and pose significant downside risk to our port throughput forecasts for the country.
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Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Valparaiso tonnage throughput forecast to grow 15.5%, with average annual growth of 12% the next five years.
- 2012 Port of San Antonio tonnage throughput forecast to grow 4.6% with average annual growth of 6.7% the next five years.
- 2012 Port of Valparaiso twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput forecast to grow 18.8%, with average annual growth of 14% the next five years.
- 2012 Port of San Antonio TEU throughput forecast to grow 5.6%, with average annual growth of 8.3% the next five years.
Key Industry Trends
Port of Valparaiso Launches Tender For Second Terminal
Valparaiso has opened a tender for a second container terminal. Redevelopment plans are under way for the expansion of Terminal 2. The tender process is open until December 20 for a concession of 30 years.
MSC Hikes Rates From Eastern Mediterranean To Chile
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) put a general rate increase into effect from June 2012 on all westbound cargo shipped from the Eastern Mediterranean to the ports of Arica and Iquique in Chile.The Geneva-based carrier said the rate hike affects all import cargo from ports in Turkey, the Black Sea, and Greece.
CSAV Volume Down In March
The volume of containers transported by CSAV in March of this year fell by more than half year-on-year (y-o-y) as the Chilean carrier cut its vessel capacity by 50% from levels in the first few months of last year as part of its restructuring process.
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