Fast Market Research recommends "China Real Estate Report Q4 2012" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/10/2012 -- The China real estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction sectors in the country from the perspective that the market, which has experienced exponential growth over recent years, is starting to succumb to the impending conflagration of market weakness.
With a focus on the principal and second-tier cities of Shanghai, Beijing, Wuhan and Shenzen, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of wider economic concerns on a market which is losing balance. As prices are wavering from historic stability and curbing measures continue, particularly in major cities in China, the overriding sentiment in the country's commercial and residential real estate market is that a slowdown is under way, and our latest data collection from H112, while not demonstrating a resounding contraction, has seen many y-o-y rental figures post results in the red. Many developers are struggling with liquidity issues, and many more have estimated a decline in earnings for Q112. There are some bright spots on the horizon, however. The retail market is showing strength amid the uncertainty. In addition, Beijing's office rents have so far shown little sign of slowing, recently surpassing those in New York and Tokyo.
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- The recent stability in China's real estate market is unlikely to last as the economic downturn intensifies, end-user credit demand diminishes, and real estate developers' inventory hits the market. There is a growing risk that further weakness could trigger an implosion of the shadow banking system, and we see no end to the localised credit crunches that will continue to require government bailouts.
- While a recession in China is off the radar of most observers, the evidence that the economy is close to contraction is compelling, and leading indicators suggest that the worst is not over yet. Furthermore, in contrast to consensus expectations, we do not expect a recovery any time soon, as structural forces at play will keep growth relatively weak and highly susceptible to negative shocks. We forecast headline real GDP growth to come in at 7.5% and 7.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, versus Bloomberg consensus forecasts of 8.2% and 8.4%.
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