Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/24/2014 -- We anticipate stronger private consumption in the coming months amid an improvement in labour market dynamics and an expected end to a household deleveraging cycle that began in early 2012. Indeed, Colombia's unemployment rate came in at 7.8% in October, down from 12.0% in January, falling to its lowest level in recent history. We forecast unemployment will fall further to 7.4% by end-2014 on the back of strong job creation in the services and construction sectors, which have both been expanding rapidly in recent years. The decline in unemployment will be particularly good for the consumer sector in 2014.

Headline Industry Data (in local currency)

- 2014 per capita food consumption = +7.4% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annual growth rate (CAGR) 2014-2018 = +8.8%.
- 2014 alcoholic drink sales value = +5.4% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014-2018 = +6.2%.
- 2014 soft drink sales value = +9.7% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014-2018 = +9.6%.
- 2014 mass grocery retail sales = +9.2% y-o-y; forecast CAGR 2014-to 2018 = +10.6%.

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Key Company Trends

Starbucks To Open First Store In Colombia: Starbucks says it will open its first cafe in Colombia, where the popular Juan Valdez chain has a very firm foothold. The Seattle-based chain says the Bogota store will open in the first half of 2014 and be operated through a joint venture between the company's Latin American franchisee Alsea and the food company Grupo Nutresa. Starbucks says it has 'aggressive plans' to open cafes across Colombia over the next five years. CEO Howard Schultz says Starbucks has discussed with Colombia's coffee federation increasing its use of Colombian coffee worldwide by about 20% over the next three years. The federation is a partner in the Juan Valdez chain, which has more than 225 shops, mostly in Colombia. Starbucks says it has more than 650 stores in Latin America.

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