Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/10/2013 -- BMI View: We believe that there is a great deal of long-term potential for the local consumer market in Colombia, but flag up short-term concerns about the impact of ongoing household deleveraging on the country's economic outlook.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Colombian retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the ongoing deterioration of the global economy on the Colombian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. Colombian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a healthy 34% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 15%. The country is in 4th place in BMI's Latin American Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it underperforms slightly for Rewards scores.

Among all retail categories, consumer electronics will be the outperformer through to 2017 in growth terms, with sales forecast to rise from US$5.31bn in 2013 to US$7.27bn by 2017, an increase of 37.0%. Consumer electronics spending per capita is projected to rise 45% to about US$139 by the end of the forecast period, following growth in key digital products groups such as computers (which have only 14% penetration), notebook computers and digital TV sets.

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In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Colombia's status as the third most populous country and fifth-largest economy in Latin America. In addition, approximately three-quarters of Colombians live in urban areas and almost two-thirds of the population are younger than 30; facts that aid the development potential of the country's consumer electronics sector..

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- BMI believes Colombia's economy will remain one of the best performing in Latin America in 2013, driven by strong consumption and investment. Indeed, despite ongoing household deleveraging amid record high levels of household debt, we forecast real private consumption growth to come in at 4.0%, buoyed by supportive credit growth, a relatively strong currency and improvements in the labour market. We forecast real GDP growth to come in at 4.3% in 2013, broadly in line with our 2012 forecast of 4.4%.
- While private consumption growth will be constrained by ongoing household deleveraging, it will remain relatively resilient in 2013 due to robust credit growth, a strong currency and declining unemployment. We forecast unemployment to decline to 8.5% by end-2013, down from its recent high of 14.6 in January 2012, as the economy's expansion contributes to labour market improvements, further bolstering consumption through increases in disposable income.

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