New Country Reports research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/22/2013 -- We believe that Cote d'Ivoire will be one of the fastest growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa over the coming years as the economy continues its impressive return to form following a decade of stagnation. We predict that headline real GDP growth will average 8.0% between 2014 and 2017.
Rising cocoa prices, the country's key export, will provide welcome support to export earnings, but will not prevent the current account deficit widening towards the end of our forecast period as a building boom inflates the import bill.
While a recently adopted law granting Ivorian citizenship to many of the country's long-term immigrants will be controversial in the short run, BMI believes that extending legal status will help to address the ethnic divisions that have led to a decade of political crisis.
Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our current account deficit forecasts for 2013 and 2014 up from 3.4% of GDP and 3.6% of GDP to 3.0% of GDP and 2.8% of GDP respectively. The revisions follow upward adjustments made by our Commodities Team to their average cocoa price projections for the two years in question.
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Key Risks To Outlook
The country's positive economic prospects remain heavily contingent on political stability and any notable deterioration in this area would pose a major threat to the nation's recovery. Political tensions remain high, and BMI does not believe that any substantial progress towards integrating opposition supporters into the political process is likely in the short term.
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