Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/06/2015 -- Core Views:

- Despite a moderate downward revision to our 2015 real GDP growth forecast for C?te d'Ivoire, at 8.6% it is still one of the fastest-growing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. Private consumption and gross fixed capital investment will be the major drivers of this expansion.

- Bipartisan support will ensure incumbent President Allassane Outtara's victory in October elections, and with it policy continuity. However, although we do not expect a return to civil war in 2015,there are a number of challenges to security, including striking soldiers and high-profile trials.

- Cote d'Ivoire's current account deficit will widen in 2015 as it returns to trend level. The deficit narrowed in 2014 thanks to a surge in cocoa production, but we believe that the effect of this have petered out. Imports will rise thanks to the development of new industries.

- Cote d'Ivoire's budget deficit will widen to 3.3% of GDP in 2015 as the government drives forward with infrastructure projects. This is no cause for concern, however, as the expenditure will drive future growth and is well covered by international donor funds and borrowing.

- Major Forecast Changes:

- Real GDP growth estimate/forecast revised from 9.1% in 2014 and 8.8% in 2015 to 8.4% and 8.6% respectively.

- Key Risks To Outlook:

- Our broad outlook is dependent on the maintenance of a stable political situation that allows for significant levels of foreign investment and the implementation of the government's reform and development plans. Such stability is not a certainty, however, and for this reason ethnic and political tensions pose the key risk to the country's economic prospects.

- At the time of writing there had been no reported cases of Ebola in C?te d'Ivoire but its shared, poorly controlled borders with Guinea and Liberia - two of the three worst affected countries (Sierra Leone being the other) - clearly put it at risk.

- The economy's reliance on cocoa exports means that poor weather could...

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The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in The Cote d'Ivoire and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..

An influential new analysis of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).

Key Uses

- Forecast the pace and stability of The Cote d'Ivoire's economic and industry growth through end-2017.

- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.

- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.

- Contextualise The Cote d'Ivoire's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.

- Evaluate external threats to doing business in The Cote d'Ivoire, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ivorian economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for The Cote d'Ivoire through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Cote d'Ivoire Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.

- BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).

- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.

- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).

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