Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/15/2013 -- Following a year in which BMI believes saw falling volumes, 2012 will signal a return to growth in all freight modes, albeit very slow in most of them.

Total trade is projected to continue declining with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (y-oy) decrease of 2.79% in 2013 following an estimated fall by 4.29% in 2012.

Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 2% in 2013. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn, with volumes plummeting in 2009 and 2010, and is struggling even to start a recovery.

Headline Industry Data

- 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 0.5%
- 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 0.9%
- 2013 Port of Rijeka throughput is forecast to grow by 1.9%
- 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.8%
- 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 0.2%
- 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at -2.8%

Key Industry Trends

HZ Cargo to Cooperate with Rail Cargo Austria

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Croatian state-owned railway group HZ Holding announced in May 2012 that its rail freight unit HZ Cargo signed a cooperation agreement with Rail Cargo Austria. The companies will join their forces in the handling of cargo shipped across the border between Croatia and Slovenia through the Sapjane-Ilirska Bistrica and Savski Marof-Dobova border crossings.

ICTSI Offers Upside Risk via Efficiencies and Investment

Croatia's recessionary outlook will not dampen container throughput at the country's main port of Rijeka, with the global port operator ICTSI set to drive up volumes via efficiencies and investment. ICTSI's latest coup at the Adriatic Gate Container Terminal (AGCT) is to gain the backing of the facility's workforce, with the operator signing a collective bargaining agreement (CBA) with the Independent Union of Employees of Port of Rijeka. The deal, which is set to provide education, social development, safety and productivity for the terminal's workforce, highlights ICTSI's desire to develop a strong relationship with terminal workers and the unions.

Balkan Ports Attract Chinese Interest

BMI notes that interest in Balkan ports from China is picking up. This is good news for the region's facilities, as major port operators have of late turned their attention away from European expansion options and are concentrating on increasing their exposure to the relatively higher growth outlook markets in Latin America, Asia and Africa. The potential for Chinese investment offers upside risk in throughput at the ports.

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