Fast Market Research recommends "Croatia Retail Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/30/2013 -- The Croatia Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags up short-term anxieties about the potential impact on Croatia's economic outlook of a combination of fiscal austerity measures introduced by the Kukuriku coalition government and depressed private consumption. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Croatian retail market while minimising investment risk. It also explores the impact of a possible deterioration in the eurozone sovereign debt crisis on the Croatian consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. We analyse the growth and risk management strategies being employed by leading players in the Croatian retail sector as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the market.
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Croatian per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by a modest 18% to 2017, compared with a regional growth average of 39%. The country comes last in BMI's Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly in the risk component.
Among all retail categories, automotives will be the outperformer between 2013 and 2017, with BMI forecasting unit sales to increase by 68% during this period, from 42,591 units in 2013 to 71,570 units by 2017. Croatia is the second largest car market in the countries of former Yugoslavia in terms of market share and the number of cars per capita. The country is enjoying some success with niche electric car production. DOK-ING and Rimac Automobili have exhibited electric concept cars at the Frankfurt Motor Show.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- Although Croatia's economic recovery will remain sluggish over the coming months, we believe the economy is now bottoming out. We forecast real GDP growth of -0.4% in 2013 and 1.1% in 2014, from -2.2% in 2012, and believe a modest recovery in private consumption throughout H213 and the robust tourism sector will ensure that growth picks up modestly in 2014.
- We see private consumption subtracting 0.7 percentage points (pp) from growth in 2013, as high unemployment, stagnant wage growth and low disposable incomes continue restraining Croatian consumers' ability to spend. While we do not expect any significant uptick in private consumption any time soon, we believe spending should recover modestly throughout H213 and into 2014. We see the country's successful July accession to the EU having a positive impact on stability and consumer sentiment going forward, while Croatia's inflationary dynamics should also be modestly supportive of real incomes. We therefore see private consumption adding 1.0pp to growth in 2014, which should help pull the country out of its five-year negative growth trajectory.
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