Fast Market Research recommends "Cyprus Business Forecast Report Q1 2015" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/19/2014 -- Core Views
- Cyprus is past the worst of its brutal recession. Nonetheless, we do not forecast annual economic expansion until 2016, as credit growth remains impaired, public austerity deepens, and the internal devaluation process keeps a lid on nominal and real wages.
- Although the Cypriot government's fiscal consolidation plan has begun to bear fruit , with a reduced deficit, a budget surplus is unlikely to be posted anytime soon. With slow economic growth ahead and chronic budget deficits, Cyprus's debt sustainability may again be called into question at some point in the next few years.
- Talks to reunify the island have regained some momentum in the past year. While both sides of the dispute still appear to be far apart on the terms of any potential settlement, we believe that negotiations on the 40-year-old 'Cyprus problem' are reaching a crucial phase.
Major Forecast Change
- We have raised our 2015 real GDP growth forecast to 0.0% from -0.2%.
View Full Report Details and Table of Contents
Key Risks To Outlook
- Given the sharp decline in major categories of expenditure, particularly fixed investment, there is the potential for a stronger rebound than we are currently pencilling in over the next two years. We reiterate, however, that the economy and the components of expenditure are likely to remain well below their peaks in real terms for several years to come.
The Cyprus Business Forecast Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Cyprus and is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market..
An influential new analysis of Cyprus's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2017, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (BMI).
- Forecast the pace and stability of Cyprus's economic and industry growth through end-2017.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the business environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise Cyprus's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Ratings system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in Cyprus, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Cyprus Business Forecast Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Business Environment.
How will the Cypriot economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2013-2017?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Cyprus through end-2017 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Cyprus Business Forecast Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2013 through to end-2017, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- BMI's comprehensive Risk Ratings system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector exposure).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2017 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.
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