Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 02/12/2013 -- Following a year (2012) in which BMI saw growth slowing, or even being negative, in some freight modes, we are forecasting 2013 to signal a return to growth in two freight modes and its acceleration in two others.

Total trade is projected to continue picking up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year (yo- y) increase of 2.82% in 2013 following a growth of 8.55% in 2012.

Road freight should continue to dominate the sector, even after a projected decline of 1.1% y-o-y in 2012. The decline is evidence that the sector did not manage to defy the downturn. It also shows that the sector has been unable to defy EU pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region. BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in the Czech Republic's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road.

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Headline Industry Data

?? 2013 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.2%
?? 2013 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 2.4%
?? 2013 Road freight is forecast to grow by 1.5%
?? 2013 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 4.9%
?? 2013 Total real trade growth is forecast at 2.8%

Key Industry Trends

State Aid Approved for Czech Airlines

Czech Airlines Cargo's parent company, national carrier Czech Airlines (CSA), increased flight frequencies to a number of destinations during the winter season after the European authority gave the green light to state help. The European Commission decided to finally give its approval for CZK2.5bn (EUR100mn) of state aid to Czech Airlines to finance its restructuring.

DB Schenker Gets Highest Level AEO Certificate in the Czech Republic

DB Schenker Czech Republic has achieved the highest level AEO certificate. The Customs Administration of the Czech Republic granted the company the AEO Certificate 'Customs simplifications/Security' (AEO F).

Risks to Outlook

A longer and more pronounced slowdown in eurozone growth than BMI currently forecasts, creates considerable downside risks to our forecasts for Czech Republic's freight transport growth. The country and the sector rely heavily on the external market for growth, particularly while government expenditure is dragged down by fiscal austerity and as consumers struggle to bounce back from the global recession.

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