Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/18/2015 -- Demographic changes and innovation by the insurers will support steady growth in DKK terms in life premiums. The expansion of the economy and innovation will underpin growth in DKK terms in the non-life segment (outside the motor vehicle insurance sub-sector at least). Currency movements will cause premiums to contract in USD terms this year, but will boost growth in the later years of the forecast period. In USD terms, premiums will contract quite sharply in both the major segments during 2015. However, in DKK terms, premiums in both segments should grow by around 3%. Thanks in part to demographic trends (in the life segment), the prospects of reasonably steady growth (in the non-life segment) and innovation on the part of the insurers (in both), we think that this rate of growth will be sustained through the forecast period. The trajectory in USD terms will likely be lifted in the later years by currency movements.

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Though mature and extremely developed France's insurance sector will continue to experience growth across both its life and non-life markets over the coming quarters. Adverse macroeconomic conditions and weakness in businesses and consumer sentiment has not prevented insurers from innovating or developing new products or increasing rates. That said, we expect premiums growth to continue to be at a low level over our forecast period, especially in USD terms.

Even by Western European standards, France's insurance market is extremely well developed. The country's leading life and non-life providers are typified by large companies with significant economies of scale.

Many of the leading brands are affiliates of banking groups and therefore enjoy access to capital and reinsurance markets as well as well-honed bancassurance and other distribution networks. Though penetration and density are both already high, the life and non-life premium have both been growing, albeit slowly. The latest data from the FFSA, the trade association, highlights rapid growth in sales of unit-linked life insurance products, in particular, however it remains to be seen what impact increased volatility in global equities markets will have on demand for these products going forward. There are also positive signs coming from the non-life segment where firms have been focusing on product development and innovation and there has been significant investment in technology by the likes of Allianz and other leading providers.

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Lithuania's insurance market is underdeveloped, with limited penetration and density in both the life and non-life sectors. However the country offers substantial growth potential and benefits from the presence of a number of large regional and global insurers which bring expertise and capital stability to the market. We are forecasting steady growth in premiums across the insurance market over the forecast period and in conjunction with a transparent regulatory environment this makes Lithuania an increasingly attractive investment destination.

The domestic economy in Lithuania is expected to slow somewhat in 2015 and 2016, and we have revised down our real GDP growth outlook for the country as the impact of Russia's economic crisis on Lithuania has been more pronounced than we had anticipated. As a result, we have downgraded our forecast for real GDP growth to 2.5% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016, from our previous forecasts of 2.8% and 3.3% respectively.

Short-term currency fluctuations will also impact the market and mean that we expect to see double-digit declines in life and non-life premiums in US dollar terms over 2015, before returning to growth in 2016. In local currency terms, we expect to see positive growth driven by an increase in private financial consumption - with our forecasts supported by the latest Bank of Lithuania figures, which show steady growth in life and non-life premiums over the first half of 2015.

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