Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Egypt Agribusiness Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/24/2013 -- BMI View: Egypt remains the world's largest wheat importer, and moderating global prices will help to decrease pressure on the fiscal situation and on local inflation. Even though imports were halted for the first months of the year, we do not see this as a pattern and believe the country's imports will only increase in the coming years. We continue to see the lifting of the three-year-old ban on rice exports as providing a boost to the local industry. The sugar industry is benefiting from a tight local market and higher domestic prices, while the cotton industry is likely to be helped by the recent recovery in prices. The livestock and dairy industries are likely to recover soon from the recent foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, which had a milder impact than expected. We like the growth opportunities for a company such as Juhayna Foods, which is exposed to the strong consumer story in the country.
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- Wheat production growth to 2016/17: 13.4% to 9.5mn tonnes. This will come largely on the back of government efforts to increase area planted and yields in the coming years.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 14.3% to 3.3mn tonnes. This will be driven by growth in the local confectionary and soft drinks industry on the back of population and income growth.
- Poultry production growth to 2016/17: 18.3% to 986,600 tonnes. This will come from improvements in productivity as well as better integration of livestock producers and therefore gains in margins. Our forecast for a moderation in grain prices in the medium term also is likely to be beneficial for the industry.
- Real GDP growth: 1.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in 2013 (up from 2.2% y-o-y in 2012).
- Consumer inflation: average 9.50% y-o-y in 2013 (up from 7.2% y-o-y in 2012).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 1.0% y-o-y increase to US$10.8bn in 2012/13; forecast to grow on average 1.9% annually between 2011/12 and 2016/17.
Revisions To Our Forecasts
- 2013/14 wheat production has been revised down from 9.1mn tonnes to 8.7mn tonnes, as fuel shortages have resulted in losses in the crop. We still see some downside risk to supply given these factors.
- 2013/14 corn production forecast revised down from 6.3mn tonnes to 5.9mn tonnes as plantings estimates were revised down slightly.
- 2013 wheat consumption has been revised down from 18.9mn tonnes to 18.7mn tonnes on the back of the weakening economic outlook in the country.
- 2013 corn consumption forecast revised down from 12.4mn tonnes to 10.8mn tonnes for similar reasons as wheat consumption.
- 2013/14 rice production has been revised up from 4.6mn tonnes to 4.8mn tonnes in line with local industry sources.
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