Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/29/2014 -- Dengue fever is a febrile illness caused by a single-stranded flavirius most commonly transmitted by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue fever is one of the most prevalent arthropod-borne diseases affecting humans. The severity of dengue fever ranges from asymptomatic cases, to classic dengue fever, and to DHF or DSS.
GlobalData epidemiologists sourced government-based publications for the forecast of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue fever cases, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases.
GlobalData epidemiologists forecast that laboratory-confirmed dengue cases in the 5MM will increase from an annual average of 304,608 cases from 2009-2013 to 339,104 cases in 2023 with an annual growth rate (AGR) of 1.13%. Brazil will have almost half the number of reported laboratory-confirmed dengue cases among the 5MM throughout the forecast period (207,000 cases in 2023). GlobalData epidemiologists believe that introductions of new or long-dormant dengue serotypes would be a significant driver in disease transmission in the 5MM during the next 10 years.
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This report is based on laboratory-confirmed dengue cases reported by the national surveillance systems of the 5MM. Therefore, it should be used with the understanding that reported cases are a function of the dengue case burden in the country as well as the type and capacity of the dengue surveillance system.
This report provide a comprehensive analysis of dengue fever epidemiology in the 5MM, incorporating risk factors, disease burden, outbreak periodicity, serotype circulation pattern, regional variations in disease pattern, and age- and sex-specific distribution. The analysis is based on strong sources, including official national dengue reports, weekly surveillance reports, and reportable disease databases. GlobalData epidemiologists supplemented the national-level surveillance data with peer-reviewed regional studies. The analysis was also conducted using consistent methodology across the 5MM, thereby allowing meaningful comparison of the forecast numbers.
- The Dengue EpiCast Report provides an overview of the dengue fever risk factors and comorbidities, global and historical epidemiology trends, and circulating serotypes (DENV-1, DENV-2, DENV-3, and DENV-4) in five major markets (5MM) (Brazil, India, Mexico, Singapore, and Thailand). In addition, this report includes a 10-year epidemiology forecast for the reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases of dengue fever (including classic dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and dengue shock syndrome (DSS)) for the 5MM. The reported laboratory-confirmed incident cases are segmented by sex and age (<1 year, 1 year, 2-14 years, 15-44 years, 45-64 years, and =65 years).
- The dengue epidemiology report is written and developed by Masters- and PhD-level epidemiologists.
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