Fast Market Research recommends "Estonia Autos Report 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/30/2013 -- New passenger car sales in Estonia grew by 73.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) during 2011, to 15,350 units, according to figures released by the European Automotive Manufacturers Association (ACEA). New commercial vehicle sales grew by 78.4% y-o-y, to 2,787, giving a total new vehicle sales figure of 18,137 units for the year. This upward growth trend has continued into 2012, with passenger car sales increasing by 19% y-o-y over the first eight months of the year, to reach 11,872 units. Commercial vehicle sales were also up by 7.6% over the first half of the year, to reach 1,397 units.
Against this positive backdrop, BMI has revised up its 2012 new passenger car sales forecast to a growth rate of 22%. With commercial vehicle sales set to increase by 9.8%, this equates to 20.1% annual growth for the new vehicle sales market as a whole. The forecast is based on a strong bounce-back from low sales volumes in recent years, coupled with buoyant consumer demand. Supporting our optimistic view has been a spate of positive economic data over recent months. Retail trade continues to come in strong, with growth in the real retail trade index coming in at 8.1% y-o-y in June 2012, down only slightly from 9.4% in May. In addition, the unemployment rate in Estonia fell to 10.2% in Q212, from 13.3% in the same period of 2011, below the eurozone average in June of 11.2%.
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Moreover, real wages have continued to rise which, when combined with fairly healthy household balance sheets and an improving labour market, should keep private consumption well supported. BMI believes these factors will lead to increases in consumer spending and a subsequent boost to passenger car sales. This has partly informed our bullish forecast revision for sales growth in this segment.
Looking forward, BMI remains optimistic on the outlook for the Estonian new vehicle sales market, forecasting expansion of 91.6% in total vehicle sales between end-2012 and end-2017, to reach 41,740 units. Passenger car sales will grow at a faster rate than that for commercial vehicles. That said, BMI believes that Estonia will only return to pre-2008 crisis levels of new car sales by end-2016.
This report also examines the long-term prospects for electric vehicle (EV) sales in Estonia. Although the Estonian EV market is currently weak, BMI believes that ongoing government policies to increase the use of EVs will bear fruit, and we expect to see a strong uptake in EV sales over the medium-term.
In terms of manufacturers, Toyota Motor remains the dominant player in Estonia. Looking at data for the month of August 2012 (most recent available), Toyota held a market share of 14.2% across the passenger car and commercial vehicle segments, followed by Volkswagen (VW, 8.8%) and then Skoda (8.6%).
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