Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/24/2013 -- BMI View: Strong Q113 results underpin our expectations for further growth in Estonia's pharmaceutical sales in 2013. An improving macroeconomic picture, real wage growth and higher employment figures point to a rise in state tax revenues. We therefore expect funding for healthcare to rise, particularly in light of the country's ageing population. Nevertheless, on an absolute basis, the Estonian pharmaceutical market remains relatively small in comparison to regional markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Despite its transparent regulatory policies, business-friendly operating environment and strong pharmaceutical sales in 2012, the country continues to present drugmakers with limited opportunities.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: EUR262mn (US$330mn) in 2012 to EUR276mn (US$370mn) in 2013; +5.3% in local currency terms and +10.2% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast somewhat lower than in Q313, due to new market data and macroeconomic expectations.
- Healthcare: EUR1.13bn (US$1.43bn) in 2012 to EUR1.16bn (US$1.55bn) in 2013; +3.4% in local currency terms and +8.3% in US dollar terms.

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Risk/Reward Ratings

Estonia scores 52.1 in BMI's adjusted risk and reward assessment Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Rating (RRR) tool, putting it in 11th place out of the 20 key markets covered in the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) region. BMI notes that Estonia's Industry Rewards are still the weakest part of its pharmaceutical profile, mainly negatively influenced by above-average scores in the urban/rural split and pensionable population. As the population ages, the dominant types of disease will shift with the emergence of many more long-lasting chronic conditions, cancers and degenerative illnesses. 30% of urban residents and 31% of people living in rural areas reported to have health problems. This will tip the ratio of working people to dependants further towards the latter, increasing the pressure on overall funding for the healthcare system. Nevertheless, these factors also present potential rewards in this particular pharmaceutical market.

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