Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/31/2015 -- Core Views
- We believe that France's economic growth will lag the rest of the eurozone over the next two years as investment growth and external demand remain lacklustre, while meagre wage growth and high unemployment mean that household consumption – traditionally the key driver of the economy – will become less able to support growth.
- We expect the fall in global oil prices and euro depreciation that occurred in H214 to bolster France's current account balance over the next two years. Euro depreciation will increase the competitiveness of exports to non-eurozone countries, as well as make France a cheaper holiday destination. Nevertheless, a weak euro and cheap oil will paper over the cracks of the structural decline in French competitiveness over the past decade.
- Although we are likely to see a gradual increase in positive rhetoric towards structural reforms, François Hollande is unlikely to become an ambitious reformer of the French model. While we expect some reformers will take baby steps in the right direction, the ability of Hollande to implement sweeping reforms will be restrained by divisions within his own party and core support base.
- We believe that France will continue to miss the European Commission's debt and deficit targets over the next two years and instead pursue fiscal consolidation at its own, decidedly slower, pace. Paris has now been granted three reprieves on its budget deficit. The country was originally supposed to bring down its budget deficit to meet the Maastricht criteria of 3.0% of GDP by 2013, though this has now been extended to 2017. We think that this target will also be missed, and do not forecast a budget deficit below 3% of GDP until 2018.

Major Forecast Changes
- We have notched up our 2015 headline real GDP growth forecast to 1.3%, from 1.1% previously, to reflect building consumer momentum domestically and accelerating growth momentum across the eurozone as European Central Bank quantitative easing takes hold and supply-side disinflationary pressure increases households' purchasing power.
- We have revised our 2015 and 2016 current account forecasts to -0.9% and -1.0% of GDP, from -1.1% and -1.3% respectively, to reflect the declining energy import bill following the steep decline in global oil prices that occurred over H214.

The France Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in France. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of France's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, Business Monitor International (Publisher).

Key Uses
- Forecast the pace and stability of France's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
- Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
- Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
- Contextualise France's country risks against regional peers using Publisher's country comparative Risk Index system.
- Evaluate external threats to doing business in France, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
- The France Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (Publisher) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook, Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.

Economic Outlook:
How will the France' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
Publisher provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for France through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents
The France Country Risk Report features Publisher's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and Publisher's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:
Data:
- Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
- Publisher's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:
- Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
- Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
- Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
- Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
- Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies, government finance and tax reforms.
- Foreign Direct Investment - approvals, inflows and climate.
- External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
- Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities, growth in key regions, inflation, and interest and exchange rates, in the United States, Japan, China and the eurozone.

Key Benefits
- Rely upon Publisher's 100% independent forecast scenarios for France and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
- Exploit the benefits of Publisher's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on France, sourced and fully maintained by Publisher from an extensive network of private sector, government and multilateral contacts.
- Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy, which could significantly affect your company's business prospects, from Publisher's team of analysts and economists.

Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in France over the next 5-years?
Publisher's France country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.

Political Outlook Contents
- SWOT Analysis for the France Market - Political Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats facing France.
- Political Stability and Risk Assessment - Publisher's Risk Index assesses explicit short- and long-term risks to political stability; latest positioning and trends for France's risk are compared with regional and global averages.
- Current Administration and Policy-making Publisher assesses the threats to the continuity of economic policy, and likely changes to the business operating environment.
- Long-Term Political Outlook Publisher examines the structural risks to the stability of France's political system and the dominant public policy issues likely to affect decision-makers, and outlines scenarios for how the state could evolve in the medium to long term.

Key Benefits
- Benchmark France's risk profile against its neighbours, the global and regional average, allowing easy comparison of risks between key business markets.
- Identify, evaluate and anticipate political and security risks to the business environment, and to your company's current operations and future plans.
- Gain valuable insights into government and policy-making, through Publisher's specialist team of analysts and economists, and their network of private and public sector sources.

Operational Risk
What are the current operational risks and difficulties associated with doing business in France?
The Operational Risk section gives an evaluation of current risks and difficulties associated with operating in the market. It also provides a brief overview of the regional Operational Risk Index which benchmarks France against its neighbours.

Operational Risk Contents
The chapter provides a summary of the main threats in the country, within:
- Labour Market Risk (Education; Availability of Labour; and Labour Costs)
- Logistics Risk (Market Size and Utilities; Quality and Extent of the Transport Governance)
- Trade and Investment Risk (Economic Openness; Government Intervention; and Legal Risks)
- Crime and Security Risk (Crime; Terrorism; and Interstate Conflict risks).

Key Sector Outlook*
Which industry sectors in France will grow fastest, and where are the major investment opportunities in the market?
Publisher identifies investment opportunities in France's high growth industries including automotives, defence & security, food & drink, freight transport, infrastructure, oil & gas, pharmaceuticals & healthcare and telecommunications & IT.

Key Areas Covered:
- Market Overview - Size and value of each industry, including recent sector developments and major industry key performance indicators (KPIs) that have impacted company performance.
- 5-year Industry Forecasts - Forecasts for each year over 2015-2019, using Publisher's proprietary industry modelling technique, which incorporates key domestic and international indicators - including economic growth, interest rates, exchange rate outlook, commodity prices and demographic trends - to provide fully integrated forecasts across and within each industry.
- Demand- and Supply-Side Data/Forecasts - Publisher's industry data covers both the output of each industry and the domestic demand, offering clear analysis of anticipated import/export trends, as well as capacity growth within each industry.

Key Benefits
- Target strategic opportunities in high growth industries, which are benefiting from global mega trends, and thus offer strong investment and growth opportunities.
- Compare the growth path of different industries to identify which are best placed to benefit from domestic and international economic prospects, and which have historically suffered from volatile growth trends - a key indicator of future risks.

For further information on this report, please visit- http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/france-country-risk-report-q4-2015

Related Report:

1st- Hong Kong Country Risk Report Q4 2015 - visit at: http://www.marketresearchreports.com/business-monitor-international/hong-kong-country-risk-report-q4-2015

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