Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/12/2012 -- Germany's economic outlook remains clouded by the continued risk of a eurozone break-up scenario, which would lead to an immediate collapse in fixed investment and hit external demand for German exports very hard. Indeed, we note that our latest economic growth projections for Germany show that we do not see a meaningful economic re-balancing process towards higher household consumption (and away from export-led growth) taking shape in Germany over the medium term. This will prevent a more rapid rise in final household consumption expenditure, while leaving the economy highly vulnerable to the very weak growth trajectory for the wider eurozone economy over the coming 10 years.
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Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2012 per capita food consumption = +2.6%; forecast to 2016 = +15.2%
- 2012 alcoholic drink sales = +0.9%; forecast to 2016 = +4.2%
- 2012 soft drink sales = +2.8%; forecast to 2016 = +16.4%
- 2012 mass grocery retail sales = +4.7%; forecast to 2016 = +27.8%
Key Company Trends
Muller and PepsiCo Team Up for Push into US Yoghurt Market: Despite criticism that it has lost sight of its traditional strengths, US giant PepsiCo continues to advance into healthier categories, with the firm announcing in July 2012 its new yoghurt offering for the US market. Through a joint venture with Germany's Muller, the firm is to launch three new products: Muller Corner, Muller FrutuUp and Muller Greek Corner. The operation is set to take advantage of PepsiCo's existing chilled distribution network, honed through its juice brand Tropicana, and the dairy expertise of Muller
Metro Offloads UK Cash & Carry Business: Germany-based retail giant Metro Group recently announced the sale of its UK wholesale arm Makro UK to local rival Booker in a cash and shares deal.. The move is a response to weak performance at the unit, which has been hit by changing consumption patterns and the incursion of supermarket groups into the convenience channel. Over the last four years, Metro's cash-and-carry unit (from which it generates 46% of its revenues) has suffered owing to poor performance in the domestic market and slowing sales in other Western European markets. BMI believes a trend away from cash-and-carry outlets is structural rather than cyclical, with leading grocery retailers expanding their operations into the convenience channel and reducing the base of independent outlets upon which Metro is reliant. This is likely to prompt consolidation within the sector, and the tie-up between Booker and Metro may become part of a wider trend.
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