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Germany, Iraq and Egypt Country Risk Report Q4 2015 New Report Now Available from

Market Research Reports, Inc. has announced the addition of “Germany, Iraq and Egypt Country Risk Report Q4 2015" research report to their website


Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/01/2015 -- With the household consumption outlook looking increasingly positive, the long-awaited rebalancing of the German economy away from net exports and toward domestic demand is under way.

Though it is becoming more balanced, Germany's economy will continue to be characterised by very high net savings rates for both the private and public sectors, which will continue to hinder the eurozone's growth trajectory.

While we believe Germany's current account surplus will peak in 2015 on the back of lower oil prices, the narrowing of the surplus over the next five years will be limited by tight fiscal policy.

We expect German foreign policy to become increasingly isolationist over the next few years, driven by the declining global influence of the US, changing attitudes of a younger generation and fatigue with the lack of reform among eurozone states.

Major Forecast Changes
We have raised our German real GDP growth forecasts to 2.0% in 2015 (from 1.9%) and 2.0% in 2016 (from 1.7%). With revenue growing strongly alongside improving economic expansion, we have raised our forecast for the 2015 budget surplus to 0.6% of GDP, from 0.3% previously.

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Islamic State will remain well entrenched over the coming year, and Iraqi security forces (ISF) and their allies will focus on re-conquering the Anbar province. Iraq will maintain formal unity within a fragile federalised state over the coming decade, with the Kurdish region retaining significant autonomy but not outright independence.

Stronger headline growth of the Iraqi economy in 2015 will result from accelerating oil exports. Conversely, domestic expansion will be sluggish and uneven; consumer spending and capital formation will be hit hard by political instability, and declining oil prices will hinder the government's ability to prop up spending.

Major Forecast Changes
Iraq's current account surplus will narrow significantly in 2015 as declining oil prices will hit the value of hydrocarbons exports. We forecast Iraq's current account to come in a deficit of 7.0% of GDP in 2015, from our previous forecast of a surplus of 4.5% of GDP and compared to surplus of 9.8% of GDP in 2014.

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2015 will be a relatively positive year for the Egyptian economy, as the currency stabilises and investment returns to the county.

The fiscal and net export position will improve significantly on the back of fuel subsidy reform. Subsidy cuts will likely be watered down if public unrest occurs on a significant scale, however, the bulk of reform will remain in place. Hikes to domestic energy prices will push consumer price inflation back into the double digits by the end of the year.

Egypt's geopolitical importance will ensure that even if an IMF agreement is delayed for longer than expected, further foreign aid commitments will materialise around the turn of the year. Western powers such as the US and EU have an interest in ensuring the North African country does not experience a more pronounced economic and political crisis. However, it will be donations from the GCC which keeps Egypt afloat this year.

We do not expect an IMF deal in 2015, as the economic rationale has waned somewhat since the influx of foreign aid and it is politically unpalatable at present. Parliamentary elections in Q415 will result in a fragmented legislative with minimal Islamist presence.

Major Forecast Changes
We now expect sharper depreciation in the Egyptian pound over the coming year, reaching EGP8.000/USD by end-2015.

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