Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Germany Mining Report 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/19/2013 -- We expect Germany's mining sector value will decline over the coming years, falling to US $2.88bn in 2017, from US$3.31bn in 2012. This decline will be driven by falling coal production as the country phases out state funding of the coal industry to meet EU regulations. We therefore expect the mining sector's share of GDP to continue falling over the next decade with little hope of growth.
The German government's decision to summarily shut down eight of its nuclear power plants following Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant crisis, triggered by its major earthquake and tsunami in March 2011, has left the country between a rock and hard place. Scepticism about the current government's will and ability to replace nuclear generation with other renewable sources, rather than a medium-term surge in coal and gas consumption, rose sharply in the weeks after the U-turn. The government insisted that Germany has no intention of simply replacing nuclear power capacity with fossil fuels, however, and that the country remains committed to filling the generation shortfall with renewable energy. Nonetheless, Germany's coal consumption is likely to jump over the remainder of 2011 as a result of the reactor shutdowns.
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Germany's proposed phase-out of nuclear energy suggests that the country will need more coal plants. Over a dozen new coal plants are planned for the next several years, but they could damage the country's prospects of meeting its carbon emissions targets. The concomitant jump in coal-burn will boost coal consumption in the country, which at 76.5mn tonnes of oil equivalent, 16% of total European consumption, was second only to Russia in 2012. Some utilities estimated that Germany will require an additional 2mn tonnes of coal from the spot market in 2013 on the back of the policy move.
We expect Germany's iron ore sector to record modest growth over the coming five years as the sector slowly recovers from the global downturn. Germany's iron ore production came in at an estimated 401kt (thousand tonnes) in 2011, making the country seventh largest iron ore producer in Europe and accounting for a fraction of a percent of global output. We expect Germany's share of global iron ore output to decline over the coming years as our modest growth forecast is overshadowed by rapid growth elsewhere, mainly in Scandinavia, West Africa and China.
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