Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/14/2012 -- BMI View: While the increased consumption of generic medicines will have an impact on the overall pharmaceutical market forecast for Germany, we note that government measures such as the three-year freeze on price rises for prescription drugs, as well as the implementation of mandatory discounts of up to 16% on patented drugs, will weigh more heavily on overall pharmaceutical market growth.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: EUR39.68bn (US$55.15bn) in 2011 to EUR38.68bn (US$49.90bn) in 2012; -2.5% decline in local currency terms and -9.5% in US dollar terms.
- Healthcare: EUR272.67bn (US$379.01bn) in 2011 to EUR279.03bn (US$359.95bn) in 2012; +2.3% growth in local currency terms and -5.0% in US dollar terms.
- Medical devices: EUR14.97bn (US$20.81bn) in 2011 to EUR15.63bn (US$20.16bn) in 2012; +4.4% growth in local currency terms and a 3.1% decline in US dollar terms.

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Risk/Reward Rating: In our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q312, Germany is ranked third in Western Europe, behind Switzerland and the UK. Despite the tough pricing and reimbursement conditions and the effects of patent expirations, Germany remains one of the largest global pharmaceutical markets, which will continue to prop up its rewards score.

Key Trends And Developments

- In March 2012, pharmaceutical firms in Germany criticised the Act on the Reform of the Market for Medicinal Products (AMNOG). Under the AMNOG, which was introduced in 2011, firms launching a new drug are required to provide a dossier showing it offers an improvement on existing treatments. The Federal Joint Committee (G-BA)'s verdict comes after the evaluation of the drug by the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Healthcare (IQWiG), which takes about three months. Companies have said IQWiG's methodology and estimates about drugs in various cases have not been correct.
- Bayer released it Q112 results in April 2012. The company's sales were at the centre of its guidance for the full year at EUR36.5bn (US$47.3bn), and its net income increased by 90% to EUR2.47bn (US$3.2bn) on the full-year result for 2010. However, earnings before interest and taxes, excluding special items for the group, only increased by 12.9% as the company had incurred several large one-off expenses in 2010. In Q411, earnings were diminished by special charges of EUR215mn (US$278.6mn), mainly from restructuring, compared to net special charges of EUR954mn (US$1.24bn) in Q410.

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