Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/07/2014 -- Attempts by Germany's grand coalition government to constrain the cost and pace of Germany's Energiewende do not ultimately indicate that there has been a major change in policy trajectory. While growth in renewables may be slower than anticipated, we believe that the Energiewende will erode German competitiveness and the structural challenges facing traditional utilities will remain in place in 2014 and 2015.
Although reform of the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) may slow the pace of renewables expansion so as to reduce the costs associated with the Energiewende (energy transition), we forecast Germany will continue to register rapid growth in renewable-based electricity generation. As such, Germany will retain its position as a global renewables powerhouse, but this will have significant implications for the economy and structural problems in the utilities sector are unlikely to recede.
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Our core views on the German power sector have been formulated based on the highly politicised nature of the Energiewende. The debate has crystallised around the way in which the country phases out nuclear capacity and transitions to generating electricity using renewable sources - without spiking domestic electricity prices and damaging the economic competitiveness of its major industries
However, while the proposed amendments to the EEG indicate growth in renewables will be capped at a more sustainable level, the country's green energy targets are still hugely ambitious and there is little to indicate a change in direction with regards to renewable energy policy. Our view is supported by the fact that the German public remains broadly in favour of the Energiewende, despite concerns that households have borne that cost of the transition while export-oriented businesses have been shielded from the renewables surcharge.
While the number of industry players that will be exempt from renewables surcharges has been cut, we believe there is little to indicate a change in...
The Germany Power Report features Business Monitor International (BMI)'s market assessment and independent forecasts covering electricity generation (coal, gas, oil, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables), electricity consumption, trade, transmission and distribution losses and electricity generating capacity.
The Germany Power Report also analyses the impact of regulatory changes, recent developments and the background macroeconomic outlook and features competitive landscapes comparing national and multinational operators by sales, market share, investments, projects, partners and expansion strategies.
- Use BMI's independent industry forecasts for Germany to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic planning in the power market
- Target business opportunities and risks Germany's power sector through our reviews of latest power industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Germany
- Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Competitive Landscape analysis
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts, views and trend analysis, covering power markets, regulatory changes, major investments, projects and company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats within the power sector, and within the broader political, economic and business environment.
The Regional Overview provides a comparative context from within which one can assess the relative profitability of the power industry in a given country, incorporating BMI's country risk macro forecasts into our regional analysis. They also detail any relevant issues or events that might cause market fluctuations, as well as evaluate the impact of existing power infrastructure and fresh investments on the regional market.
BMI Industry Forecasts
The Industry Forecasts provide historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for electricity generation (TWh) and electricity generating capacity (MW) for each individual power segment present in the country. These forecasts are in turn supported by explicit assumptions, in conjunction with analysis of the key risks to the main forecast. These in turn are broken down into:
Electricity Generation forecasts for Thermal, Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear, Hydro and Non-Hydro Renewables. For this section, we provide information on electricity generation (TWh), % growth year-on-year, KWh per capita, and the % of total electricity generation. The thermal fuels (coal, gas and oil) also have figures for their % of total thermal electricity generation.
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