Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 08/13/2012 -- The Germany Real Estate report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country, in the context of Germany's central role in managing the ongoing eurozone debt crisis.
With a data focus on the principal cities of Berlin, Frankfurt, Dusseldorf and Munich, the report covers the rental market performance in terms of rates and yields over the past 18 months, and examines how best to maximise returns in the commercial real estate market, while minimising investment risk and exploring the impact of a high level of risk; Germany's economy is showing increasing signs that it is not immune to the rapidly escalating eurozone debt crisis, as falling business confidence and declining manufacturing orders affect the outlook for investment.
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The economic situations in all the cities we cover were looking fairly strong in 2011 (given the wider context). Business sentiment was sturdy, employment was slightly improving year-on-year and the consumer appeared to be resilient. This was reflected in the real estate market, which in 2011 continued to perform robustly, with falling vacancy levels and rising rents defying the wider malaise in the national economy. The prime office market is in rude health, emblematic of Germany's importance as a leading global economy. The retail property market is the outperformer. The industrial real estate market was stronger in 2011 than in 2010. It seems that, with the severity of the eurozone debt crisis unchanged but business sentiment slowly returning, 2012 may be more muddled, or at least less dynamic, than 2011.
- Take-up for commercial property in Germany was strong in 2011, absorbing new supply and reducing vacancy levels across the major cities. 2012 will be more muddled, but may be a good time for businesses to develop and plan for Germany's expected strong growth across all subsectors.
- Demand is not met sufficiently by supply of quality property in premium locations. There are great opportunities for construction and development.
- Recent indicators suggest to us that upcoming GDP data will be more moderate than during the first quarter, when the economy grew at a higher than expected 0.5% (seasonally adjusted) compared to the previous quarter. We therefore hold to our below-consensus 2012 real GDP growth forecast of 0.4%.
- Germany's manufacturing base will remain weighed down by weak foreign orders, while the fragility surrounding the response to the eurozone debt crisis means business sentiment could take a sudden turn for the worse at any point throughout the year.
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