Fast Market Research recommends "Germany Real Estate Report Q4 2013" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/17/2013 -- Commercial real estate growth is very much dependent on a healthy macroeconomic environment. While the situation in Germany remains broadly robust, thanks in part to its status as a safe haven market and its comparative regional strength, the property juggernaut is not immune to economic woes. In 2013 the commercial real estate market is facing many of the same problems as 2012: the drag of the US fiscal cliff, Chinese growth bottoming out, geopolitical risk, and the euro debt and slow eurozone economies. However, the risks are set to be less severe as balance sheets for consumers and businesses have improved and extra liquidity should induce more transactions and reduce market associated risks.
German economic growth has stalled. Although it surprised consensus to the downside, Germany's weak Q412 growth reading was in line with our own expectations, and has therefore not prompted any change to our 2013 and 2014 growth projections. We still expect growth to average 0.8% in 2013 (up from 0.7% in 2012), the bulk of which will come in the second half of the year, and forecast an expansion of 1.9% in 2014.
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Poor economic growth will affect the commercial real estate sector, as it dampens both property fundamentals and capital markets, putting downward pressure upon tenant retentions, rental growth, yields, development activity, financing and asset values.
- The Germany Real Estate Report examines the commercial office, retail, industrial and construction segments throughout the country, in the context of Germany's central role in managing the ongoing eurozone debt crisis.
- In light of data released for Q113, the residential and non-residential building sector is forecast to have a tough year in 2013, with market contraction anticipated. While we forecast growth to crawl back to life in 2014, it will stagnate to the end of our forecast period.
- Growth remains sluggish for the German construction and infrastructure sector, despite strong fundamentals. The construction industry is forecast to contract by 1.9% year-on-year for 2013, and then manage to average just 1% real growth per annum to 2022.
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