Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/27/2015 -- Real GDP growth in Ghana will accelerate in 2016 and 2017 as the economy recovers from the economic morass it has been in over the past two years. Increasing oil production, improving electricity generation and diminishing deficits will be the root causes of this.

Another hike to Ghana's key policy rate on September 14, a hawkish communique and still-high inflation augur for further monetary tightening in Ghana, and we now expect that there will be an additional 100 basis points (bps) hike to the policy rate before year-end - implying 26.00%, the highest rate since 2003. This is indicative of the macroeconomic troubles Ghana is undergoing, and the authorities' determination to bring inflation under control at whatever cost.

Get More Details on this Report and a Full Table of Contents at Ghana Country Risk Report Q1 2016

Ghana's current account deficit will begin to diminish in 2016, despite ongoing price weakness for the country's key commodity exports. A ramp-up in oil exports and import-limiting currency weakness will offset ongoing falls in prices.

There will be some increase in spending by Ghana's NDC in the run-up to the 2016 elections, but not to a level that should concern investors. A weak political opposition and the high costs involved in failing the IMF program mean that a massive increase is unlikely.

Ghana has issued its third eurobond at a yield of 10.75%. This will help support the currency, preventing what would have been a likely sell-off of the cedi had the authorities delayed the issuance any further, and help cover the budget and roll over short-term debt. However, while the eurobond is cheaper than short-term borrowing, the debt will be far more costly to Ghana than previous issuances; its 2026 bond issued last year launched at a rate of 8.2%.

Key Risks To Outlook:

If the government fails to abide by the IMF's conditionality following the deal finalised in early 2015, investor sentiment will sour severely.

The Ghana Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment, strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Ghana. It is an essential tool for CEOs, Chairmen, Finance Directors/CFOs, Managing Directors, Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.

An influential new analysis of Ghana's economic, political and financial prospects through end-2019, just published by award-winning forecasters, BMI Research.

Key Uses

-Forecast the pace and stability of Ghana's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
-Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends, to facilitate risk mitigation.
-Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
-Contextualise Ghana's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
-Evaluate external threats to doing business in Ghana, including currency volatility, the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.

The Ghana Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections: Economic Outlook, Political Outlook and Operational Risk.

Economic Outlook:

How will the Ghana' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?

BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Ghana through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth, and also forecast the impact of economic management.

Economic Outlook Contents

The Ghana Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019, set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.

Key Areas Covered:

Data:

-Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita), population, inflation, current account balance and the exchange rate.
-BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk, and rates the business environment, within a global and regional context.

Written Analysis:

-Economic Activity - real GDP growth, employment, inflation, consumption (retail sales and confidence).
-Balance of Payments - trade and investment, current and capital account.
-Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
-Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls, foreign investment flows, exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
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