New Food research report from Business Monitor International is now available from Fast Market Research
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/29/2013 -- Passenger car sales for the first four months of the year rose 7.4% y-o-y, to 20,962 units. We are maintaining our 2013 sales forecast of 3% growth, to 36,756 units.
Total commercial vehicle (CV) sales for the first seven months of 2013 came in at 3,483 units, up 49.4% yo- y. While there was a surge in March in both the light and heavy CV segment, we believe it was due to the incentive scheme for replacing Euro II diesel CVs with new CVs, which are less polluting. However, this scheme has now ended and sales have fallen back to their previous growth trajectory.
Nonetheless, sales figures for 7M13 have prompted us to upgrade our growth forecasts. We have revised our light CV sales growth forecast from 25% to 27%. Growth in heavy CV sales has been revised from 100% to 43%. The strong performance in the bus segment thus far has caused us to upgrade our full-year growth forecast to 8%.
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This will then bring our total CV sales growth forecast for 2013, to 28.1%, to 5,700 units.
The overwhelmingly dominant part of Hong Kong's auto market will continue to be passenger vehicles. In 2012 passenger car sales totalled 35,685, which is just fewer than 89% of all total vehicle sales in the city province. While CV sales contracted by 1.4% in 2012 to 4,456 units, we expect them to grow by 28% in 2013 to 5,700 units due to the new round of subsidies offered by the government in H113 to incentivise owners of old diesel CVs to replace them, in a bid to battle Hong Kong's worsening air pollution. We forecast the CV segment to average growth of only 0.3% over the 2014-2017 period, to hit nearly 5,800 units by 2017. This is because it is logical to expect the segment to contract in 2014 due to 2013 subsidies front-loading some of the demand in the market.
As Hong Kong investors look to taxi licenses as an alternative investment, the price of a license has surged more than 80% since September 2009. However, we do not see the rapid rise in demand for licenses affecting the taxi fleet size as the supply of new taxis is regulated by the Hong Kong government. Going forward, cashflows from taxi rentals are unlikely to cover the initial license investment cost and speculators may be in for a rude shock as prices of licenses correct.
Toyota's Hiace model was the best-selling car in July 2013 for the fourth consecutive month, with sales of 234 units. It was also the top-selling car for 7M13, with sales of 1,275 units. The Volkswagen Golf came in second-place with sales of 180 units and the C-class and E-class models of Mercedes-Benz came in third and fourth place respectively.
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