Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/20/2013 -- The Greek real estate sector remains weak: the development pipeline is glacial, demand-destruction is endemic and the growth outlook remains poor. Nevertheless, as 2013 draws to a close, conditions are not expected to worsen. Our core scenario is rents remaining stable over the full year. Should further economic distress emerge, such as a disorderly default, market contraction will be prolonged. The one area of upside is for the capital, Athens, where our in-country sources believe that there may be some scope for growth in the rental market.

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The bottom line is that the strength of the commercial real estate market is dependent on a healthy macroeconomic environment. Despite the length and magnitude of the depression, the risk of relapse remains significant. The poor economic growth combined with a less than assured recovery has affected the commercial real estate sector as it has dampened both property fundamentals and capital markets, putting downward pressure upon tenant retentions, rental growth, yields, development activity, financing and asset values.

While the government has overcome a number of obstacles, a return to sustainable growth is predicated not just on successful economic reforms, but also on targeting policies at future growth industries and restoring confidence in the market. The short-term outlook for the real estate sector is not likely to restore investor confidence. The risks for the real estate sector as a whole are therefore firmly weighted to the downside, with a slight silver lining coming in the form of high-end space, particularly in the retail and office segments.

Key Points

- Greece's construction industry is expected to remain in recession for the seventh consecutive year in 2013, and we do not expect a recovery in the sector until 2017. The residential construction sector has undoubtedly been the hardest hit; however, the reliance of infrastructure on public funds has seen project funding for this sector dry up. While there are some glimmers of hope for infrastructure, mainly through EU funding support, the outlook for the industry as a whole remains bleak.
- The long-awaited recovery in the Greek economy could be a step closer, with headline GDP showing a stabilisation in recent quarters. Following another year of economic contraction in 2013, we expect a return to growth in 2014, though we vcontinue to project a very subdued growth trajectory over the longer term.

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