Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/26/2012 -- BMI View: With no domestic energy resources, Hong Kong faces the challenge of meeting growing oil and gas demand through imports alone. Having mainland China on its doorstep helps, as the outlook for Hong Kong is linked directly to that of its parent state.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Hong Kong's oil and gas sector are:

- Natural gas is still viewed simply as a power generation fuel, but more will be consumed as gasfired capacity expands. Our forecasts are for gas consumption to rise from an estimated 3.97bcm in 2011 to 4.40bcm in 2016 and to 5.25bcm by 2021.
- Hong Kong looks set to receive gas from Central Asia by mid-2012, following a move by China's National Energy Administration (NEA) to speed up China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC)'s work on the Shenzhen-Hong Kong gas pipeline. The pipeline is a spur of the Second West-East Pipeline, which was completed in July 2011. Construction work on the second pipeline has started in Shenzhen, China. The completion of the Hong Kong spur will help to diversify the city's gas import sources and will help to improve access to gas.
- The rate of oil products demand growth and imports should match underlying GDP trends closely, although a drive towards energy conservation may lead to a moderation in market expansion. This suggests that oil demand will rise from an estimated 391,000b/d in 2011 to a forecast 467,000b/d by 2016 and to a possible 558,000b/d by 2021. All of this oil will be imported.
- The cost of crude oil imports is put at US$16.51bn in 2012, rising to US$16.88bn in 2016 and to US$19.77bn by 2021. However, Hong Kong actually imports refined petroleum products, meaning that the import bill is far higher than for crude. Natural gas imports in 2012 will cost an estimated US$2.18bn, and will total US$2.53bn by 2021. The total cost of crude oil and gas imports by the end of the forecast period in 2021 will be US$22.30bn. We assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013.

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