Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 05/16/2012 -- The Q212 BMI Hong Kong Retail report forecasts that total retail sales in the special administrative region will grow from HKD329.01bn (US$42.44bn) in 2012 to HKD359.61bn (US$46.39bn) by 2016. Rising disposable incomes and a strong tourism industry are key factors behind the forecast growth.
Hong Kong's nominal GDP is forecast to be US$258.2bn in 2012. We predict average annual GDP growth of 3.3% through to 2016. With the population increasing from 7.2mn to 7.5mn over this period, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 18.8%, from US$35,886 in 2012 to US$42,633 by 2016.
Tourist spending contributes significantly to Hong Kong retail sales, and data from the Hong Kong Tourism Board (HKTB) show that a total of 36.03mn people visited Hong Kong in 2010, up 21.8% yearon- year (y-o-y). Spending by visitors in 2010 amounted to HKD210bn (US$27bn), a rise of 32% on 2009, while the first-time tourist expenditure has topped HKD200bn.
Retail sub-sectors that are forecast to achieve healthy sales growth throughout the period include automotives, which is forecast to increase by almost 18%, from 41,335 units in 2012 to 48,581 units by 2016.
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Consumer electronics sales are predicted to grow from US$4.41bn in 2012 to US$5.25bn, a rise of 19%, by the end of the forecast period as demand grows for high-end products such as multimedia notebooks, 3G phones and smartphones.
BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 28.5% in 2012. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$12.11bn in 2012, and sales are expected to grow to US$13.32bn by 2016. Our forecasts suggest that the retail market share of food is likely to be 28.7% in 2016. Per capita food consumption is still forecast to be US$1,774 in 2016, which is impressive for the region.
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