Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 11/10/2012 -- The Hong Kong Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags short-term concerns about the impact on Hong Kong's economic outlook of falling property prices.

The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Hong Kong retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of the slowdown in the Chinese economy on the Hong Kong consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.

The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Hong Kong retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Hong Kong comes fourth (out of seven) in BMI's Asia Retail risk/reward ratings, although it outperforms significantly for risk.

Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by 29% between 2012 and 2016, from US$0.29bn to US$0.37bn as locally involved companies take advantage of growth in the mainland Chinese drug market.

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In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the government's cost-cutting initiatives, which will benefit the generic drugs sector, and the strategic framework for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases, which should stimulate prescription and patented segments.

Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

- BMI sees real GDP growth slowing to 2.2% from our previous estimate of 3.0%. The recent uptick in Hong Kong's Q411 real GDP growth is likely to reverse in the first half of 2012. Weakening external demand conditions should see Hong Kong's exports take a hit. Meanwhile, the correction in the domestic real estate market is likely to gather pace through 2012, having ramifications on consumption and investment spending.

- BMI sees private consumption growth slowing to 2.5% from 4.5%, contributing 1.5 percentage points (pp) to real GDP growth. We believe the effects of a corrective real estate market will place considerable stress on the economy, with private consumption likely to be the hardest hit. We also expect the jobless rate to rise from a 3.4% average in 2011 to 4.4% in 2012. The retail spending climate that kept private consumption well supported for much of 2011 is thus unlikely to see a repeat this year.

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