Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/01/2014 -- The port of Hong Kong holds the top position in Hong Kong's maritime sector in terms of both total tonnage and container throughput. We believe it will return to growth in 2014 after 2013 performance was hindered by a forty day strike, continued recession in the eurozone, the sluggish nature of US economic growth, the slowing outlook for the Chinese economy, the move of Chinese factories further inland and competition from the neighbouring port of Shenzhen.

Over the rest of the medium term, BMI projects moderate growth at the port of Hong Kong. Although up until 2012 it was managing to weather the competition from the development of Shenzhen as China's second-largest container port and despite the close proximity of the two facilities was managing to retain its lead, Hong Kong is now estimated to have lost it to Shenzhen, which, BMI believes, also had its container throughput bolstered as a result of the Hong Kong 2013 strike, as some shippers re-routed there to avoid the industrial action.

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We, however, also highlight that the port of Hong Kong has long-term expansion plans in place to ensure it remains among the world's top ports.

Headline Industry Data

- 2014 port of Hong Kong tonnage throughput forecast to grow 1%, over the medium term we project a 9% increase.
- 2014 port of Hong Kong container throughput forecast to grow 2%, over the medium term we project an 8% increase.
- 2014 total trade growth forecast at 4.23%.

Key Industry Trends

Calls for FTA and FTZ for Hong Kong: China's Guangdong province was reportedly conducting a feasibility study to establish a free trade zone including the special administrative regions of Hong Kong and Macau, while calls appeared on Hong Kong to join the ASEAN-China free-trade agreement. OOCL Names Its Eighth 13,208TEU Vessel: Hong Kong-based Orient Overseas Container Line has named it eighth 13,208 twenty-foot equivalent units ship on Geoje Island in South Korea the NYK Hyperion in October.

Risks to Outlook

The major short-term risk to our outlook for Hong Kong is presented by a potential deepening of the slowdown in demand outlook for Europe, the US and China. If the mainland economy experiences a sharper-than-expected slowdown, or the sovereign crisis in Europe takes a turn for the worse, it would lead to a decline in throughput at the nation's port.

The movement of industries away from the Pearl River Delta region inland - on the back of rising production costs and labour shortages in the area - is likely to negatively affect the Port of Hong Kong in the short to medium term. Although BMI estimates that the port of Hong Kong has slipped to fourth position in the global container throughput rankings, behind Shenzhen, it will continue to play a major transhipment role over the medium term. To ensure its position, BMI believes Hong Kong will have to keep up with shipping trends.

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