Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 12/06/2013 -- We believe that Hungarian petrochemicals output will struggle with poor domestic market conditions, particularly in the construction sector, but trends observed in Q213 point to a recovery in 2014 as exports and household consumption pick up. However, the industry is far from a recovery and it could be at least two years before it approaches pre-recession production levels. Diversification of production in isocyanates and butadiene should enable Hungarian petrochemicals producers to capitalise on the country's position as a production centre for the European automotives industry.

The first eight months of 2013 witnessed chemicals output growth of 8.2%, while plastic and rubber production declined by an average of 3.9%. The Hungarian manufacturing sector as a whole reported a contraction of 0.2%, indicating that while chemicals performed far better than most other industrial sectors, plastics and rubber were under severe pressure.

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However, figures from Hungarian petrochemicals producer MOL suggested that in Q2 the industry bounced back from a slump in Q1 to deliver an overall stronger performance for H113. Ethylene output was up 6.2% y-o-y to 327,000 tonnes in the first half, with propylene up 4.4% to 167,000 tonnes. While the closure of an low density polyethylene (LDPE) line in October 2012 ensured output of the polymer was down 17.9% y-o-y to 64,000 tonnes, high density polyethylene (HDPE) which represented 39% of polymers output grew 18.3% y-o-y to 181,000 tonnes. Polypropylene (PP) also recovered in Q213 with 2.7% y-o-y growth in the product to 225,000 tonnes.

BMI has revised the following forecasts/views

- LDPE is likely to gain momentum in coming months following the resumption of production at MOL's 65,000tpa LDPE II plant in July 2013.
- MOL is also investing in a new 130,000tpa butadiene plant. Announced in 2012, the plant will be located at the company's TVK operations in Tiszaujvaros and is scheduled for completion in 2015. Growth in butadiene output will help secure feedstock supplies for synthetic rubber used in the country's growing automotive industry.
- Hungary's macroeconomic landscape appears to be improving going into 2014 due to a recovery in export and household consumption. However, we continue to stress that there remain significant risks in relation to the country's business environment and government policy.
- In BMI's Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, Hungary scores 57.8 points out of 100, down 0.2 points since the previous quarter due to a 5.0 points decline in its market risk. It lies in 10th place, 0.5 points behind the Czech Republic and 7.6 points ahead of Slovakia.

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