Fast Market Research recommends "Hungary Retail Report Q1 2014" from Business Monitor International, now available
Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/29/2014 -- We believe that the key drivers of growth in the Hungarian retail market over the next few years will be increased economic prosperity despite the financial downturn, easier access to credit and demand for premium products. Such trends will offset the negative impact of demographic factors such as an ageing and shrinking population, so the industry continues to offer substantial opportunities for foreign and domestic retailers.
The new Hungary retail report provides an extensive and comprehensive forecast of various retail indicators including household spending, and headline total spending across each retail subsector, household income and employment forecasts, demographic forecasts, and a detailed breakdown of household and per capita spending across a large number of retail areas including food & drink, healthcare and insurance, consumer electronics, toys, pets, gardens, household goods, and a number of other subsectors.
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Overall, we see long-term potential in the local consumer market, particularly for non-essential items and aspirational purchasing by a growing affluent middle class. We forecast the average net household income will be around US$11,981 over 2013, with over 50% of earning households falling into the middle class wage bracket of US$10,000+. However, by 2018, almost 70% of households fall into the US$10,000+ income bracket, which represents the key demographic for increased household spending on luxury items beyond necessities such as food, utilities and transport. We expect this number to grow, resulting in a corresponding increase in household spending on personal care and effects, consumer electronics, luxury household goods and high-end household appliances, restaurants and entertainment. Meanwhile, transport expenditure will also continue to rise as a larger number of households purchase cars and bikes and travel longer distances, including the purchase of holiday flights.
With the Hungarian general election due to be held in spring 2014, we expect incumbent Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party to once again emerge victorious and maintain its majority in parliament. The electoral pact between the centre-left Socialists and Egyutt 2014, led by former prime minister Gordon Bajnai, may cause Fidesz concern in some constituencies, but such is the governing party's lead in opinion polls we do not believe it will result in a change in government. With Fidesz likely to retain power, we expect broad policy continuity, with punitive corporate taxes propping up the state's coffers, while households emerge largely unscathed, with austerity measures and consumer tax hikes unlikely.
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