Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 07/09/2013 -- Core Views

Iceland's real GDP growth rate will be amongst the fastest in the developed world over our 10-year forecast period, expanding at an average of 2.7% per annum. However, it will not be until 2015 that Iceland returns to its peak pre-crisis level of real GDP.

The April 2013 general election will most likely see a change in government in Iceland, with a centre-right coalition replacing a centre-left administration. The most significant result of such a change would most probably be an end to the country's EU accession talks.

Despite potential changes to the direction of economic and foreign policy, over our 10-year forecast period we see Iceland enjoying a high degree of political stability. The country has a very solid security environment, few societal dividing lines and a high standard of living.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised our CPI forecasts for Iceland, and now expect prices to rise by an average of 3.9% over our forecast period. With price pressures higher than in its developed peers, and the currency largely stable, Iceland will have to be careful to ensure that competitiveness in the key tourist sector does not ebb away.

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Key Risks To Outlook

Global economic conditions could deteriorate markedly, stifling Iceland's export-driven recovery.

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