Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 01/22/2013 -- BMI View: Although a precarious monsoon in the first two months of the rainy season put pressure on some of India's key crops, we believe the impact on final production will be limited. Output of rice and sugar will remain above averages, while wheat should showcase a bumper year, as some of its major growing regions were left unscathed from the drought. As we expected, India has not implemented export restrictions despite concerns over food prices. In the longer term, India's vulnerability to exceptional weather phenomenon should increase due to climate change effects and serious water shortages. However, the country will remain an agricultural powerhouse and should be able to maintain high levels of self-sufficiency for major food crops.

Key Forecasts

- Sugar production growth to 2016/17: 12.3% to 29.2mn tonnes. Strong growth will be driven by rising domestic demand that, in turn, will provide production incentives.
- Palm oil consumption growth to 2017: 35.1% to 10.0mn tonnes. Domestic palm oil consumption will be propelled by strong demand for domestic food use, which makes up about 80% of total domestic palm oil demand.
- Poultry production to 2016/17: 26.6% to 4.1mn tonnes. The sector will be driven by rising incomes and increased domestic demand as well as the emergence of vertically integrated producers with reduced consumer prices. It will also come from a raft of investments in the sector designed to improve growth.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 6.3% (down from 6.9% in 2012; predicted to average 5.6% from 2012 to 2017).
- 2013 consumer price inflation: 7.5% (down from 8.6% in 2012; forecast to average 6.3% from 2012 to 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 9.0% average (down from 8.1% in 2012).

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Key Industry Developments

The precarious rainfalls in the two first months of the 2012 monsoon delayed and reduced plantings and have hampered yields and production for the 2012/13 crop. As we expected, India has not implemented export restrictions on rice despite lower production and serious concerns over the monsoon in June and July. Exports are expected to remain historically strong, as the domestic market remains well supplied on high stocks and above 10-year average production. However, export volumes will be partly held back by the return of Thailand to international markets and by higher domestic prices.

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