Lewes, DE -- (SBWIRE) -- 10/01/2015 -- India's status as a large emerging market that is making progress on the policy environment for a range of sectors, combined with its late developer status in terms of consumer electronics device adoption rates, means we expect it to be a regional outperformer over the medium term. We expect the market to remain on a strong growth trajectory 2015-2019, with particularly robust demand growth for computer hardware and handsets expected. We forecast the total consumer electronics spend in India will increase by 6.7% in US dollar terms in 2015 to USD69.4bn, and then reach USD90.3bn in 2019. We expect mediumterm growth will be driven by rising incomes, declining device prices and the fact that 45% of India's population is under 25.

Headline Expenditure Projections:

- Computer Hardware Sales: USD19.8bn in 2014 to USD20.8bn in 2015; +5.0% in US dollar terms. The tablet market is expected to return to growth after a contraction in 2014, but it will be on a slower growth trajectory than during the initial boom and rapid diffusion of ownership among the core market.

- AV Sales: USD14.2bn in 2014 to USD14.7bn in 2015; +3.3% in US dollar terms. AV forecast downgraded in Q3 2015 after slower than expected TV set value growth and we expect it to be the underperforming segment of the market again in 2015.

- Handset Sales: USD31.1bn in 2014 to USD33.9bn in 2015; +9.3% in US dollar terms. The smartphone boom will ensure handset sales are again the outperforming category in 2015, but a penetration plateau and price erosion mean the growth rate is expected to be surpassed by the PC market over the medium term.

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We revised down our forecast for Croatia's consumer electronics market in the Q415 update to capture the negative impact of kuna depreciation on device sales in a market where consumer confidence was already very fragile after recession 2008-2014. We now forecast a decline in market value in US dollar terms of 16% in 2015, and although the market is expected to return to growth from 2017 this will be insufficient to offset the decline in 2015-2016, meaning total spending in 2019 is forecast to remain below the 2014 level for the duration of our forecast. Publisher expects big-ticket items such as TVs and PCs to again be hardest hit by the economic challenges facing Croatia, leaving the handset market as the outperforming sub-segment in 2015 and over the medium term. There are however areas of opportunity, particularly from 2017, as vendors will be better positioned to tap into comparatively low penetration rates in device categories including tablets, hybrid notebooks, smartphones, smart TVs and UHD TV sets.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer Hardware Sales: USD385mn in 2014 to USD310mn in 2015. Kuna depreciation in 2015 will result in deferred purchases and the substitution for cheaper models, meaning the value decline will exceed that for PC volumes. Another drag on market value is the shift in sales towards cheaper tablets, which have lower average selling prices compared to the notebook units being cannibalised.

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Our forecast for 2015 was revised down slightly in the Q415 update to reflect the negative impact of depreciation on consumer electronics device sales, particularly in the PC and AV segments. We expect the market to continue to grow despite these challenges, but there will nonetheless be a slowdown from 2014 when a significant easing of political and economic crisis unlocked strong growth. Over the medium term we expect the market to settle on a slower growth rate, with the wave of deferred purchases unlocked in 2014 not to be repeated. Overall, we have a positive medium-term outlook for Egypt's consumer electronics market, with a young population, low device penetration rates, rising incomes and the falling cost of devices to drive growth. We expect government, vendor and operator-led investment in supporting infrastructure such as telecoms networks and retail/distribution networks to further encourage growth and drive accelerating demand for connected devices such as smartphones and tablets. We expect total spending to increase at a compound annual growth rate of 5.5% 2015-2019, with total spending expected to rise from USD3.47bn in 2014 to USD4.54bn in 2019.

Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer hardware sales: USD909mn in 2014 to USD916mn in 2015, up 0.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast for 2015 downgraded in Q415 with reports of dollar shortages and wider trend of depreciation reflected in reduced affordability of PCs for Egyptian households.

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We expect the Malaysian consumer electronics market will contract in US dollar terms in 2015 due to ringgit depreciation exacerbating existing market trends such as the smartphone and tablet slowdown after the initial rapid diffusion of ownership. However, from 2016 we expect relatively strong growth to return as declining device prices combined with strong economic performance, particularly broad based incomes growth, once again become the dominant trend. Meanwhile, increasing competition in the smartphone, tablet and flat-screen TV markets from Chinese vendors will ensure the market continues to deepen, but as the market becomes saturated intense price competition is expected to result in a squeeze on value growth and vendor margins. There is also downside risk due to uncertainties over the export market, particularly the potential for a hard landing in China.

Headline Expenditure Projections
- Computer Hardware Sales: USD2.569bn in 2014 to USD2.317bn in 2015, a decline of 9.8% as the slowdown in the tablet market caused by core market saturation is exacerbated by the impact of ringgit depreciation, resulting in deferred purchases.

- AV Sales: USD1.062bn in 2014 to USD1.000bn in 2015, a decrease of 5.8%. Although we again expect AV sales to contract, it should be noted that its performance relative to other market segments is expected to improve as the TV set and digital camera markets begin to stabilise after significant declines in recent years.

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