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"Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q4 2013" Published

Recently published research from Business Monitor International, "Indonesia Agribusiness Report Q4 2013", is now available at Fast Market Research

 

Boston, MA -- (SBWIRE) -- 09/10/2013 -- Overall, we hold an optimistic outlook on Indonesia's agriculture sector and see significant growth opportunities in sub-sectors such as livestock, palm oil and cocoa. However, while we believe that the government's goal to reach self-sufficiency in rice by 2015 is attainable, we are less confident about other commodities such as sugar and corn. We also highlight that the country's aim to become the second largest coffee producer in the world by 2015 is unrealistic. Much of our scepticism is owing to the lack of proper infrastructure and the existence of a large number of low-technology, small-scale farmers. We believe that the shift from raw commodity exports to refined exports (especially for palm oil and cocoa) will warrant more public and private investment in order for the raw inputs industry to keep pace with downstream industries. Investments by Wilmar, Golden Agri Resources and Barry Callebaut are clear signs of the growing interest in these sectors.

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Key Forecasts

- Rice production growth to 2016/17: 14.6% to 41.6mn tonnes. We believe Indonesia will attain its goal of being self-sufficient in rice in the coming years, as the country is increasing initiatives to boost production. Growing use of high-yielding paddy varieties and agriculture intensification will help output to record higher growth rates than in the past.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2017: 27.9% to 6.5mn tonnes. Consumption growth will continue to outstrip production growth, driven by rising incomes, greater urbanisation, population growth and the growing demand from the food and beverage industry.
- Poultry consumption growth to 2017: 17.6% to 1.8mn tonnes. The increasing ability of Indonesians to afford meat as part of their daily diet will drive poultry consumption, which is the most favoured meat. Low consumption per capita suggests there is much room for growth.
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: US$60.8bn in 2013 (up from US$59.5bn in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 4.0% on average between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 real GDP growth: 5.9% (down from 6.2% in 2012; forecast to grow by 6.2% on average between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 consumer price index: 5.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) (up from 4.7% y-o-y in 2012; forecast to grow annually by 5.1% on average between 2013 and 2017).
- 2013 central bank policy rate: 6.50% (up from 5.75% in 2012; forecast to average 6.80% from 2013 to 2017).

Key Revisions To Forecasts

- Cocoa production forecasts for 2012/13 and 2013/14 revised down, to 465,000 tonnes and 480,000 respectively (compared with previous forecasts of 500,000 and 530,000 tonnes respectively). This is mainly because diseases are blighting yield and area expansion. Output growth is being hampered by poor agronomic practices, poor quality planting materials and the abundance of aging, less productive trees that render the sector more prone to severe weather patterns.

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